Prius Personal Log  #1016

June 29, 2020  -  July 1, 2020

Last Updated:  Sun. 7/19/2020

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7-01-2020

Outright Dismissal.  This clearly set the tone: "Because not much else really matters to the original topic."  He just plain did not care... which is exactly what I wanted to confirm.  Some people are enthusiasts.  They participate in online discussions for the sake of fulfillment.  They want confirmation of whatever they believe in... even if it means not getting a sincere answer.  Today, it was more of the same from a different name.  I used the opportunity for more exposition:  There it is!  Feeding a narrative rather than using critical thinking is a repeat of history, the same mistake yet again.  We have watched this scenario play out in full already.  The outcome is quite predictable.  Enthusiasts dismiss what they don't like and absolutely refuse to acknowledge the bigger picture.  For GM, the repeating question used to provide warning of that was: "Who is the market for Volt?"  They didn't care.  It was amazing how the disregard for other influencing factors were just brushed as, disregarded as irrelevant.  In the end, those intentionally wearing blinders paid the penalty.  I find it all quite telling.  You refuse to even just entertain the idea that more is at play.  Simple things like a delay so ramp-up can take place here in Kentucky instead of having to ship all the finished vehicles from Japan is never even considered.  Are you really that close-minded?  Think about it, the United States is in the middle of a pandemic and things are not going well.  We have a pivotal election coming up too.  Waiting until early next year is a sensible choice.  Why rush?

6-30-2020

First-Year Supply.  Remember how I sided with the Volt enthusiasts with regard to rollout?  I was well aware of the wide array of challenges and how much is at risk if you mess up.  All has been forgotten.  History is only for those who actually care.  Ugh.  Instead, I'm just getting a lot of fight seekers.  They want to prove a point, drawing conclusions right away by making assumptions and dismissing what doesn't fit their narrative.  It's all quite annoying, but that's the reality of rollouts.  Antagonists are always at the ready, waiting to smoother any glimmer of hope that doesn't support what they endorse.  The approach can vary.  Today, this stood out: "How is this a first year of anything?"  It was a downplay, an attempt to dismiss RAV4 Prime being initially limited in quantity... for no apparent reason.  Since this audience couldn't care less about business reasoning, I focused on engineering reasons.  With such an appealing variety of fulfilling traits, that was remarkably easy too:  Dedicated A/C battery cooling.  42-mile EV range.  0-60 in 5.7 seconds.  302 horsepower.  2,500-pound towing.

6-30-2020

Logical Reasons.  Whether there is any validity or any point to be made doesn't matter.  Whatever you posted is given an "excuse" label, then they go on to reinforce the narrative.  The complete absence of critical thinking is what gets them into trouble.  Yet, it continues.  Pride is stronger than wisdom in the blog world.  Ugh.  I rely on logic as the guide.  Sure, some emotion is fine.  But that's not how a business operates profitably.  To sustain on-going sales in a changing market, you must carefully plan out next steps.  Enthusiasts operate on hype.  That never goes well, which I try to explain why:  A well proven first year is how the big supplier contracts come about.  The lack of patience and shortsightedness from many here is really just background noise.  We know that the bigger picture involves quite a bit of ground work to be done first; otherwise, there's just no way to reach the masses.  Actually demonstrating the potential is how that is achieved.  No amount of marketing is as effective as endorsements from well-informed owners... the audience Toyota is seeking for this first year.

6-30-2020

Refusing Evidence.  As the rhetoric grows, my replies tend to get shorter.  In this case, antagonists refused to acknowledge evidence:  Those that remember Prius history will recognize the pattern.  It's all about bringing up the entire fleet... RAV4 Prime... Lexus UX300e... Corolla PHV... along with the new Sienna & Venza hybrids are obvious clues.  They don't play the niche game like some of the other automakers.  They are setting the stage for a paradigm-shift.

6-30-2020

Grading System.  Evidence of the polarized mindset is everywhere.  People seek out simple, shying away from challenges of the complex.  That means constantly having to address binary perception.  It's either one extreme or the other, nothing in between.  Ugh.  Long ago I pointed out how any of these new technologies is subject to evaluation, measuring merit on a wide variety of factors.  That didn't go over well with those obsessed with EV range.  They couldn't see beyond the battery-pack.  It led to their destruction.  Watching them self-deprecate... back themselves into a corner... was fascinating.  They truly believed they were correct, despite the obvious dismissing of relevant data... cherry-picking.  That never ceases to amaze more.  So, stuff like this is old hat: "...because people who want to buy PHEVs and EVs live only in those states.  Forget everyone else who would want one but made the unfortunate mistake of living in a non-CARB state."  It's the attitude that gets my attention.  They just plain don't care.  Impatience is a typical reason why.  Limited scope (not recognizing the larger market) is another.  I replied with:  Forcing an overly simplistic view of the situation is why most enthusiasts fail to understand the transition to mainstream.  It is not one extreme or the other. Technology acceptance works on the same grading system as we have all experienced since elementary school... A... B... C... D... F... which is why some do better than others.  Those who make a standout effort get rewarded. In this case, a state going through the pain of committing to ZEV support means getting access to first picks.  It never ceases to amaze me how much spin comes about from those trying to evade that reality.  This is not a pass/fail effort.

6-30-2020

No Substance.  The lack of thought was revealed by the response I got to my reply of this: "By the time Toyota scales up the world will have moved on to full-on-electric."  He later posted he meant the upcoming SUV.  It's that emotion which blinds many.  They submit a comment in haste.  It supports the atmosphere of rush.  This is what got GM into trouble.  They raced to fulfill a goal that didn't actually achieve anything.  But there was so much passion to back up that momentum, no one could stop the inevitable crash.  So naturally, we are seeing more of the same... no substance, because they don't bother to look for it.  Stop to think about what you are posting.  Heck, that's why I blog so much.  It forces me to think through and carefully consider.  Anywho, this is what I posted:  Since Toyota is also rolling out "full-on-electric" choices, that statement doesn't make sense.  The whole "behind" narrative lacks substance anyway.  No timeline.  No volume.  No pricing.  It's all quite vague... which is how rhetoric is defined.  Of course, it is rather humorous how this was interjected into the discussion: "If Ford is smart, they'll fill the market demand with their plug-in Ford Fiesta."  That has no relevance here in response to an article about a SUV that offers AWD and 2,500-pound towing.  You couldn't have stated a vehicle with any less in common.  Ford doesn't see a market in small cars anyway.  It was really nothing but a red-herring attempt... no substance.

6-30-2020 Deception.  The comment posting became the same predictable place as usual, arguing semantics.  In this case, it was stated as: "Toyota is using the same linguistic manipulation...".  Then it went on to conclude: "...they're deliberately being deceptive."  That attitude of their way being the only way is so prevalent, replies are only for the sake of others reading the thread.  This particular one got referred to from a variety of sources too.  So, I did exactly that: 

It comes from not understanding what the technical context meant.  The chemistry has too low of an energy-density to deliver a vehicle that will sell in high volume.  Selling a niche is unprofitable, just ask how well that went for GM.  That meant Toyota would use those years in the meantime to refine their technology while the research & development continued.  Looking at the situation today, it is still too low.  To deliver the hoped for "mass acceptance" threshold of 300 miles, the high cost prevents competing directly traditional vehicles.

In other words, arguing semantics is a distraction from the real issues.  Think about what owning a 300-mile range vehicle requires.  It adds at roughly $1,000 to the ownership cost, since the purchase & installation of a level-2 charger is required.  (Remember, a 40-amp line will provided about 200 miles of range in 8 hours.)  So, there is very much that cost involved in the overall equation as well.

Again, it's not like Toyota is waiting.  They have worked to prepare their entire fleet for profitable offerings of a plug.  Augmentation of the hybrid system is a cost-effective means of delivering that.  No other automaker has such a readily available path to follow, one that dealer & consumer will easily understand... and getting past that resistance to change is a huge barrier... one that "affordable" plays a major role in.

Go ahead, keep spinning the situation as being deceptive.  But keep in mind, you are not addressing the correct audience.

6-29-2020

True Progress.  They don't know how to address someone with my background.  I have too much experience with their nonsense to fall into their traps.  No substance makes arguing very difficult.  So if they post too much, their own claims end up revealing what the said as just rhetoric.  So, I drag them along, encouraging the foot-in-mouth mistake:  Toyota has been moving forward their entire fleet, rolling out a new architecture to make way for lower cost production.  We have watched vehicle after vehicle get the hybrid option and now traditional models phaseout is beginning.  That setting of the stage for a wide variety of PHEV offerings.  Too bad if you don't like the bottom-up methodology.  That's good solid business, a clear plan to address all dealers & customers.  Tell us how the top-down methodology is going for legacy automakers, how they will advance their fleet with the inclusion of dealers & customers.  Are they really going to somehow produce in large scale the very first year as you insist Toyota should be doing?  It's a double-standard we have already seen play out.  Denying that is hypocritical for anyone that knows the history.  Worldwide rollout during a pandemic when there is still strong opposition and little financial incentive deserves some patience.  Notice how many faster efforts from others never actually changed the status quo.  True progress takes time.

6-29-2020

First-Year Allocations.  News of Toyota not accepting anymore orders for RAV4 Prime in Japan prompted a flurry of spin.  I finally jumped into that crazy commentary with:  We have seen this all before... limiting availability and reducing domestic supply to free up more for export markets.  You build up demand while at the same time stir the market with the devoted firsts who share their ownership experiences.  It works out well for the long-term.  Spin, labels and hypocritical posts about delay are inevitable and really equate to much, especially when rollout is taking place during a pandemic.  The cold, hard reality of the situation is Toyota nailed it with the design.  The configuration of RAV4 Prime is exactly what this market has been yearning for.  So what if the volume doesn't ramp up right away?  Ordinary consumers are not those who rush to order firsts anyway.  True leadership is achieving change among the masses, not appeasing early-adopters.  Ironically, it is hype like this that helps to promote.  Naysayers end up providing a means of reaching the wider audience, inadvertently spreading the word about a new offering.  That type of negative publicity can be very effective.

6-29-2020

True EV.  He definitely struggled.  There was no effective means of countering what I had posted.  So, I keep reinforcing the message:  The category of "EV" includes both PHEV and BEV.  It is a general identifier used to indicate the plug-in vehicle is able to operate 100% electric.  Since Prius Prime can drive up to 135 km/h (84 mph) and provide heating & cooling cabin using plug-supplied electricity, anyone arguing it does not fulfill "EV" requirements have their motives questioned.  Isn't that the point?  Think about how much a PHEV like RAV4 Prime will do to help the process along.  Ordinary showroom shoppers will be enticed by the simplicity of just plugging in overnight using the outlet already available in their garage.  They'll grow use to the EV driving, then look into upgrading to a level-2 charger.  Heck, it's entirely possible the anticipation from a long delivery rate could help that process along.  This is how we entice the unconvinced to give "EV" a try.  So what if there is a gas engine available to satisfy their range anxiety?  Such a powerful means of encouraging a shift to electric should not be just dismissed, as some here are clearly attempting.

6-29-2020

Outdated.  I couldn't let this part go: "...are all scamming their customers by selling the already outdated PHEV technology."  So, I posted another comment about it because he attempted to change the subject.  Rather than explain what he actually meant, it was the classic divert.  It is that 42-mile range that makes antagonists crazy.  It was easy to attack Prius with the smaller battery-pack.  This larger one in RAV4 presents a very real problem.  That provides enough range to support the daily driving for many.  Their primary means of undermine has been eliminated.  That's how you know their claims were rhetoric.  No substance and heavy emphasis on something that could change later is a desperate move.  Yet, they tried anyway and now it is coming back to haunt them.  That's the precedent I made quite clear.  They set it, not me.  So, it is nice to post back their own words and watch them struggle to reply:  That is not true.  Your rebuttal of "people who don't drive too much, have the motivation to plug-in daily, and are afraid of BEV" is a blatant evade, an effort to now make it about range rather than 100% electric.  Reality is, the EV components in the PHEV are shared with that in the BEV.  There's nothing outdated.

6-29-2020

Know Your Products.  That was the response I got, know your products.  He clearly didn't.  In fact, I wondered if he even understood what a PHEV was.  A comment of Camry being available made no sense, especially with nothing but a vague reference.  This generalization is what got me: "Companies selling PHEV and suggesting that those are nearly real electric vehicles are scamming their customers."  That didn't make any sense.  To what was he referring?  What does "real" mean?  I pointed out:  Know your products?  You clearly don't.  My guess is you are assuming all PHEV are the same and information you have is from an older generation.  With my Prius Prime, daily commutes and errands around town are 100% electric.  The engine never starts.  Not a drop of gas is consumed.  How can you possibly claim that isn't a "real" electric vehicle.  Operation is identical.  So what if it has an on-board power source available for after depletion of the battery-pack.  You are taking advantage of plugged-supplied electricity the exactly way with a PHEV from Toyota as a BEV.

6-29-2020

Waste & Outdated.  I really enjoy responding to posts like these, since the person making the comment pretty much never follows up with any detail: "PHEV are a waste of money for the consumer, looking on TCO and future value and usability. Toyota, BMW, Renault, Mercedes, Peugeot, are all scamming their customers by selling the already outdated PHEV technology."  The argument is nothing but a string of rhetoric that ultimately confirms there was no substance behind their claim.  In other words, I watch them back themself into a corner.  This is what I did to help that process along, using a similar imprecise approach:  Waste of money is your opinion, drawing a conclusion for other people rather than recognizing their own wants & needs.  You cannot logic through a decision leveraging emotion.  Priorities are not as you state.  In other words, it's as pointless as trying to argue with someone who absolutely insists they need a SUV for their daily commute.  You will lose that argument, despite having sound reasoning about how much of a waste of money that is.  This hard lesson learned by GM from their Volt debacle was to ignore that reality.  They figured the passion for SUV purchases would carry over to a specialized plug-in.  They didn't understand the "who" part of the equation.  btw, I find it quite telling how "outdated" is used to spin a narrative.  Anyone who takes the time to study EV components will recognize PHEV technology utilizes the newest battery, motor, controller and software as a BEV.  They aren't fooled or scammed by those claims.

 

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