Personal Log  #1208

March 28, 2023  -  April 2, 2023

Last Updated:  Thurs. 9/07/2023

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4-02-2023 The Next Morning.  We literally got hit by a blizzard last night.  What a way to start a weekend. I drove home in that mess, getting to experience the AWD right away.  That was quite a surprise.  It didn't disappoint.

That next morning brought a decision of whether or not to drive clear across to the other side of the Twin Cities, for my wife's band practice... the last weekend to get together before their big concert. Being able to get out of the drive, despite so much wet & heavy snow wasn't a big deal having the electric snow-blower.  Getting over the mess others left behind wouldn't be a big deal either, with the 8-inch ground clearance and AWD... new found advantage over my Prius Prime.

On the highway... which had about an inch of that thick-packed snow which had turned to ice... limited us to 35 mph.  Odds were good it would melt prior to the return trip, so that one-way effort didn't seem too crazy.  We got there just fine, taking a little over an hour.  I found myself in a winter-wonderland, with 2 hours to find locations to take photos of my 4X.  Sweet!

I didn't even care about efficiency at that point.  I never shut the 4X off that entire time.  2 hours of running the heat-pump, following a long drive up.  We decided to meet with some friends for lunch, then do a little shopping afterward.  It had warmed up to 40°F for the trip home.  I was intrigued.  Now, I would turn to efficiency.  I kept it hidden though, instead choosing to watch how ECO mode made the AWD system favor the front motor as much as possible.

When I powered down after arriving home, I checked results.  I got a rating of "Excellent" despite 2 fast accelerations.  27 miles.  38 miles.  I was pleased to see 3.3 mi/kWh.  That's with current display software, which reflects charging-losses.  I can't wait to find out what happens once warm weather finally arrives, especially now having cooled seats.

4-01-2023

Blizzard Surprise.  When you get a new vehicle, one very capable of dealing with difficult driving conditions, you don't expect to be able to exploit that ability right away.  In fact, I was prepared to wait until the end of this year for that.  Spring had arrived.  Heavy snow trapping us into driving in it was just a wild hope.  What are the odds that would actually happen the next day following my bZ4X purchase?  It was a blizzard surprise.  We got caught in it too.  You don't expect the forecast to actually be correct.  After all, it only takes a few degrees for the rain to stay rain.  During dinner though, the temperature did drop.  The sidewalk was crunchy on our walk from the restaurant to the hall where we had orchestra performance tickets.  Upon intermission, we snuck a peak outside.  Oh!  There was now several inches of heavy snow.  That wasn't a good sign.  Walking from there to the parking ramp afterward confirmed it.  The drive would be very slow.  Travel from Minneapolis to our home in the southern suburbs took over an hour.  Speed varied 25 to 30 mph, depending on snow depth and the ability find your lane.  The heavy snow was clearly a challenge for some vehicles.   The 4X with AWD cut through it effortlessly. When we arrived at our driveway, I had the opportunity to try out X-Mode.  That was a very, very unexpected chance to try out some serious winter driving.  It was awesome!

3-31-2023

Unsellable In China.  There is an upcoming inventory crisis looming.  3 months from now, new light-duty vehicle emission limits take affect.  This is "stage 6" from the plan agreed upon back in December 2016.   25% of vehicles now sold in China are electric.  Whether they were low-hanging fruit or actual demand from the masses doesn't matter.  Vehicles not conforming to regulation cannot be sold soon.  What will become of that excess supply?  Will it serve as a template for what will happen next in Europe?  There is already pushback from Germany about 2035 targets.  What's telling though is the absolute arguments.  None of the enthusiasts want to address the actual regulation.  It's a purist perspective.  Throwing that back to them to deal with was a delight, especially when the claim of Toyota squandering lead was brought up:  Over 20 Million hybrid sales from Toyota doesn't count?  That has nothing to do with meeting expected emissions standards.  With their gen-5 plug-in hybrid (2023 Prius Prime), it's extremely difficult to argue outdated too... especially when delivering 40 miles per charge with 220 horsepower available.

3-30-2023 From Prius to bZ4X.  This is what I posted on the big Prius forum, knowing my perspective will change and distance from that once very familiar audience will increase rapidly:

My journey started in late 1999, when I came across a newspaper article mentioning a new approach to reduced emissions and improved efficiency.  It was my introduction to Prius. I was intrigued.  By April 2000, seeing an import of the Gen-0 model only available in Japan, I became obsessed.  I had learned there were 20 of them which had been distributed to families across the United States to collect feedback from real-world driving.  That feedback was used for the Gen-1 upgrade to be rolled out here that Fall.  I put my deposit down when online ordering began, they started the agonizing wait.

First test-drive opportunity came in early August, upon which I ended up coining the term "Stealth Mode" from experiencing the Prius electric-only drive (up to 42 mph, back then).  That following month, I took delivery of my 2001 Prius.  The online battles started then.  There was intense pushback from diesel supporters, which ultimately contributed to dieselgate.  Hybrids were clearly a threat to the status quo.  So much so, posts on the "Up To The Chore" thread on Edmunds resulted in the term of "hypermiling" being coined, a reply to me in a series of long attacks trying to prove Prius wasn't.  Our beloved hybrid triumphed though.  It was.  It ended up evolving into a plug-in too.  As luck would have it, the group of 50 supporters who traveled to Detroit for a special debut of the Gen-3 Prius, included an activity to suggest names for identifying new & old Prius.  My written submission was "Prius Prime".  This was back in November 2009.  The idea had seemingly been a dud... until 2016, when we learned that "Prius Prime" was the name Toyota had filed a trademark for.  Whoa!

Other contributions was sharing owner experiences, like so many here.  Those curious about Prius, those wanting to learn more following purchase, and those simply uncertain about hybrids have benefited greatly from that sharing.  Personally, I was able to upgrade several times, continuing with those knowledge exchanges with friends here.  My 2001 (Classic) Gen-1 got replaced by a 2004 (Iconic) Gen-2, then a 2010 Gen-3, then a 2012 PHV, then a 2017 Prime.  That legacy came to an end though.  Yesterday, I purchased a bZ4X.

22 years, 6 months, and 20 days of hybrid ownership... but it's not truly over.  Driving the 4X, that feel of Prius in those early days is alive & well.  It feels like going back in time, living a pioneer experience all over again.  Sharing the new quasi-HUD with Gen-5 Prius is a nice tie into new history too.  Meanwhile, my wife is still driving her 2017 Prius Prime.  So, this is really just the next chapter beginning.  Stay tuned for updates.

3-30-2023 It Happened!  I had little time to celebrate though:  Upon completing purchase of my 4X, there was little time to celebrate.  I had an EV event to participate in (for our plug-in owners group), requiring a 40-minute drive just to get there.  I grabbed my mug & camera and was out the door shortly after getting home from the dealer.  It was a quick stop at the coffeeshop, then stop at the park for a few photos.  Turns out, the park had off-road parking that had a few inches of messy snow.  So, I got a tiny taste of the AWD while there.

The temperature was 30°F for the drive there, a mix of suburb and highway.  On the way back, it dropped to 21°F.  I had the heat-pump set to 65°F, with the seat & steering-wheel warmers going, as well as the radiant-heater.  Even without a jacket on, it was quite comfortable.

None of my driving was in ECO mode.  There were a number of to-the-floor accelerations.  My drive home included swinging by a friends house and my sister's to show the 4X.  Overall, I drove 112 miles.  There was at least 30 minutes of sitting in the vehicle with the heater running while configuring the vehicle and setting up my phone interface.

You can see by the information taken from my home-charger, my 4X was able to pull the rate of 7.2 kW (that's 30 amps at 240 volts) as predicted.  There's an interesting pulsing that takes place while charging, similar to what I saw with my Prius Prime.  Overall for the day's various activities ended needed 38.47 kWh to reach full, including charging losses.  That results in an overall efficiency (including charging losses) of 2.91 mi/kWh.

I would say the drive was a very interesting experience, but in paled in comparison to being in a room full of people (who had just been out in the parking lot looking at the variety of plug-in vehicles there) asking about what's it like to own a 4X after only 3 hours of ownership.  My 4X was the very first direct-delivery-to-dealer new purchase in Minnesota.  It was an awesome experience.

3-29-2023

Purchase Day.  In a few hours, I will be heading to the dealer with much anticipation.  After so much research, filling the time while I waited, there was an onslaught of information loaded into my brain.  Countless reviews were watching, including far too many from poorly researched sources and those with ill intent.  The most concerning of my online encounters were enthusiasts who simply didn't care about Toyota's priorities.  If range & speed weren't of upmost value, the vehicle was deemed a failure.  Aspects of ordinary shopping were dismissed, exactly the same way we saw in the past.   They have no interest in mainstream preference.  Buyers of a BEV were are all the same... from their perspective.  Recognition of want & need never comes up.  That narrow-mindedness was so difficult to deal with when you don't actually own the vehicle yet.  Soon though, I will.  My expectation is a ride very similar to the EV from Prius Prime.  Obviously, there will be more power, but that wasn't an issue in the past.  So, focus will be more on the feel.  How familiar will it be?  Sitting up higher will be new.  I haven't driven anything that tall since the family van growing up, which we took on a number of road trips.  That was over 25 years ago.  A decade ago, I upgraded my Prius to one with a plug.  6 years ago, I upgraded it again and installed level-2.  That same EVSE will deliver double the kW rate for the bZ4X than the Prius Prime.  Some garage cleaning will be required to fit the larger vehicle.  That shouldn't be a big deal.  In fact, pulling in forward instead of backing in, the cord position will not change at all.  I won't need to recharge as often, with so much larger of a battery-pack and predictable charging opportunity at work.  Anywho, I'm just rambling with random thoughts before the purchase.  Today is the day!

3-28-2023

Desperate Narratives.  When I called out an obvious attempt insult & belittle Toyota in the comments of an article featuring a trade deal between the US and Japan related to battery minerals that would provide eligibility for the $7,500 tax-credit, I got back the attitude that's been growing lately.  Some antagonists are getting quite desperate, seeing Toyota making some progress.  Inventory is starting to become available and the new CEO is about to take charge.  They know it is only a matter of times before word-of-mouth promotion of bZ4X results in a sales climb.  That ramp-up of production attention resulted in this narrative effort: "Ramping up...  To what 12?  Nope, they're pushing straight ice cars.  Hybrid as last resort."  I was rather amused by that.  How is the new Prius from any perspective a last resort?  Praise for the new look and greatly increased power certainly is a new twist, one naysayers have nothing to retaliate with.  Every argument imaginable has been exhausted already.  They have run out of excuses and there's no real value from inventing a new means of attack.  It's over.  Sadly, there are production constraints.  But in this new age where ordering a vehicle and waiting for deliver is becoming a normal process, the tables have turned.  Status quo has indeed been broken.  Enjoying the victory, I took the time to constructively come up with a worthwhile reply to the nonsense:  That's a good example of a narrative.  In reality, Toyota has been striving to convert most of its passenger fleet to hybrid, with models of plug-in hybrids in the mix.  At the same time, their EV sales & production are slowly advancing forward.  Claiming a push for ICE is turning a blind-eye to what other legacy automakers are actually selling while their own EV ramp-up takes place.

3-28-2023

Plug On!  That troublemaker on the big Prius forum was at it, again.  But rather than pick a fight with me, he got put on the defense by someone else... who was equally annoyed by his trolling.  Clearly, he has nothing better to do.  It's like that admin on that bZ4X group who relentlessly denigrates Toyota and praises Tesla.  It's rather pathetic.  I have been monitoring the group.  Today's featured post started with this: "Toyota is losing market share in thee USA, while Tesla wins."  That kind of harassment is nothing new.  Every venue has someone who has their own agenda, one counter to the purpose of members being there.  For that admin, I simply don't participate.  Owners won't tolerate that.  They'll migrate to a place more welcoming & helpful.  I can't really get away from that guy who supposedly likes Toyota, but endlessly complains.  He thrives on attention.  Ugh.  So, after a long series of exchanges between him and the other guy, I jumped in to assist with:  Absence of any effort to move the discussion forward is a dead giveaway of intent.  Some people enjoy the status quo.  For the rest of us, we move on.  I will be replacing my Prius Prime with a bZ4X tomorrow. Meanwhile, my wife and I will be intrigued to watch reviews of this next-gen Prius Prime being filmed today.  While at the same time, we observe similarities & differences from EV drive in the PHEV verses the BEV.  At some point, she'll be replacing her Prius Prime with something... we don't know what yet though.  That's the road trip vehicle.  Traveling through South Dakota to visit family in Wyoming is pretty much impossible with a BEV currently and will be for years to come.  The nonsense from those unwilling to accept the past is just a waste of time.  Spring is here.  New charging stations will be built as the snow melts away.  Life is good.  Plug on!

3-28-2023 Weirdly Behind.  There are many who have been scratching their heads wondering why: "Toyota has been weirdly behind the ball on EVs.  You would think after the success of the Prius and the change that it had on the public mindset for fuel efficiency that they would have led the charge on EVs."  I have seen that sentiment quite a bit.  It never ceases to amaze me how much people don't notice what is happened on the larger scale.  Of course, with my business minor in college, studying the difference between micro & macro economics was fascinating.  I absolutely loved one of those classes.  It was very engaging.  Anywho, this is how I replied to that comment today:

Quite the opposite, success of Prius kept Toyota in a very difficult position.  When you control roughly 80% of the market, there is little incentive for others to join in.  There was a huge struggle getting other automakers to show any interest.  Toyota simply did not want to go through that again.

If you study the history, you'll see strategic moves where Toyota oddly stepped aside allowing others to get the spotlight... like Ford with their Energi debut.  Hope was success of those plug-in hybrids would open up the field to others. So, Toyota paused their own plug-in hybrid rollout.  Most people are aware of the partnership with Tesla. That again was a move to assist with opening up the market, beyond the reach of just loyal Toyota customers.

Learning the lesson of conquest is difficult.  We have seen GM really struggle with that.  It is vital though.  If you cannot appeal to those who already own an ICE you built, how will you break the status quo with BEV sales?  Toyota is well aware of that barrier and having others as an ally in the push was absolutely vital for the move beyond hybrids.

Enthusiasts tend to overlook clues related to the bigger picture.  As a result, ,there is a lot of spin & distraction from the problem of growth once the early-adopter audience is exhausted.  Saturation of market without new incentive had become a real problem.  All the low-hanging fruit has been picked. That's exactly why this second round of tax-credits came about.

 

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