Personal Log  #1245

October 31, 2023  -  November 3, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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11-03-2023

Going 100%.  That purist mentality is the root cause of some attitudes against Toyota.  Some sincerely believe this: "By this time they should have been 100% hybrid, even now they won't commit to a 100% portfolio."  That absolute is what they think is necessary.  It's ironic that change for others isn't judged anywhere near a strict.  In fact, just a meritless commit is fine of the other automakers.  Toyota is held to a higher standard due to their reputation.  The bar is higher and there is no excuse for not delivering.  I couldn't imagine that type of inflexibility working anywhere.  It certainly doesn't for me at work.  Ironically, it doesn't for Toyota either... who pretty much wrote the book on being agile.  Ugh.  Needless to say, it is pointless arguing.  Those who haven't ever notice the problem with 100% will likely never see it.  (That is an another interesting irony.)  I still tried to point out the errors in their ways regardless:  Going for 100% is the other problem enthusiasts create.  That mindset of purity becomes a barrier.  Anyone who works with software is well aware of the 90/10 problem.  90% of the resources will be consumed by 10% of the users.  Knowing that, you can avoid a great deal of waste by simply concentrating efforts on those other than the 10%.

11-03-2023

All In.  It's what has become the modern equivalent of "vastly superior".  I always wondered how that would ultimately play out.  When an automaker declares "all in" without any accountability or penalty, they are praised as better than others.  Ugh.   It's a dangerous mindset, one that ultimately has consequences.  Eliminating their obsession isn't possible though.  No matter how well you squash it, a return of that mindset is inevitable.  It's how we function... hence, know your audience.  Enthusiasts latch onto something appealing and milk it for all it's worth.  The more they push in favor of their preference, the more they lose focus on everything else.  That classic problem of only seeing a single tree in the forest become the cliché for their downfall.  Balance is unappealing.  Capitalizing on what something they thrive is their very nature... hence, being enthusiastic.  Anywho, we saw the size & power problem play out with Two-Mode.  It made the technology impractical for what mainstream buyers were seeking.  The same mistake was made with Voltec.  To be even more cliché (or ironic) third time was the charm.  What GM offered in Bolt was a failure because enthusiasts embraced it, but the rest of the industry was not interested.  Absence of profit and not having actually targeted their own loyal customers made it a lost cause.  What was the point if it didn't actually change their core purchases?  That same mistake being repeated like that was really unfortunate.  Now we see the struggle to try to deliver on "all in" without having any effective means of doing so.  Think about how many Equinox get sold annually.  Achieving success with a BEV model means competing with a base MSRP of $26,000.  This brings us back to the original problem.  Toyota chose to approach change in a different manner.  We saw that Prius wasn't "vastly superior" back then and bZ4X isn't now.  Both have unique & compelling traits and show a clear effect to deliver balance.  Striving to reach a wide audience means not giving into the temptations enthusiast thrive on.  In other words, that "all" means avoiding niche appeal... advice some never learn.

11-03-2023

Terrible Legacy.  Sometimes it's pointless to fight.  I wasn't even going to bother until this popped up: "The world will not run out of petroleum."  He had completely missed what I had been saying.  Carbon emissions are only a small part of the equation.  Unfortunately, looking at the bigger picture doesn't happen.  That's why it is pointless.  Winning or losing a single battle doesn't achieve much if there isn't anything to follow.  So, I just followed up with this and called it good enough:  It becomes increasingly more expensive to extract from new found deposits and that petroleum is of lower quality, requiring more refining.  Spending so much on a fuel that contributes heavily to *SMOG* emissions doesn't any sense.  Most importantly, it is a terrible legacy for our children, leaving them to solve the problem we created.

11-03-2023

Scaling Back.  That moment of "I told you so" can be difficult to navigate.  A video with this title attempted to circumvent the issue: "EV Production Plans Are Being Scaled Back."  Regardless of the content doing an excellent job of spelling out the influences of how we got into this situation, casting Toyota as "anti-EV" wasn't a good choice.  Most just dismiss or omit entirely.  This was more of the "all in" narrative placing blame.  Ugh.  So, I fired back in the comments asking:  Part of the problem with stockholders is they are continuously being fed a story that the only path to success is an "all in" approach.  Enthusiasts tend to be their own worst enemy by embracing a winning formula, then convincing everyone that their is no other means of achieving the same goal.  In this case, Toyota has chosen to take an approach with a heavy emphasis on transition.  By fully embracing a "phaseout ICE in favor of Hybrid", they don't risk that precious profit while building up plug-in (PHEV & BEV) offerings.  So what if enthusiasts don't like it.  Patience or not, it will take the same amount of time to sway ordinary consumers.  And since when is avoiding the very problem we now see playing out with other automakers a bad thing?

11-01-2023

More ABRP.  This time, instead of capturing screenshots from the phone-app, I took photos of what's displayed in the vehicle.  On the bZ4X screen, you get mapping detail.  It shows the route to take and provides turn-by-turn directions to follow.  It also displays status of the DC fast-chargers you are being guided to, in addition to current charge-level and what it is expected to be upon arrival.  Features offered and level of detail makes the app quite impressive.  I especially like how seamlessly it integrates between phone & vehicle.  You can bounce between them without any concern.  Syncing is fast and doesn't seen to ever get stuck.  I'm paying for the $5 monthly subscription service, but at a discounted rate since I paid the bill for an entire year when I signed up.  So far, it is quite impressive.  I can't wait to try more with it.  Anywho, here's a few photos...  bZ4X Photo Album 12

11-02-2023

Road Trips.  Sharing of real-world experiences, good or bad, it progress.  My interest was peaked when stumbling across this particular example: "We did a road trip 160 miles away and we just kept turning off the heat until the windows absolutely needed it.  We both stared at the meter the whole time.  I love driving the car, but I hate that I really can't go farther than an hour from my house.  Just like you, there is no way I could convince my husband to take two hours charging breaks and actually to a road trip."  Those are true words of a newbie, spoken without fear of penalty or ridicule.  I really appreciate that.  Here's the advice I shared in return:  Get an ODB-II reader.  You will discover assumed sacrifices like turning off the heat do little to reduce consumption.  While other designs use a lot of electricity for that, this system is surprisingly efficient.  As for "two hour charging breaks", that comes from lack of charging infrastructure and not taking advantage of charge-curve.  There are many discoveries you'll make during ownership.  As you gain experience, those initial concerns you have will fade.

11-02-2023

Talk Is Cheap.  I agree with the sentiment and understand the request: "What is your source for this info?  Talk is cheap."  Unfortunately, getting more isn't reality.  Documented here is over an entire decade of that nonsense.  GM would release a snippet of information, intentionally vague, knowing it would stir hope into hype.  There was never really any solid milestone or anyone to be held accountable.  It is the marketing game the industry plays.  Like it or not.  So when there is something at least somewhat credible, what do you do?  In other words, when you get a clue that can be verified but cannot connect it to any production decision, you're stuck.  All you can to is hope the other pieces of the puzzle come together.  Sometimes, they don't.  You end up having to wait until the next generation for some type of implementation.  In this case, we know for a fact that bZ4X has a heater for the battery-pack.  It is activated when you plug into DC for fast-charging.  Electricity for its use is drawn from the connecting cord.  Using the battery instead is realistic.  But we don't know how efficient that heater actually is and have almost no data available on how effective it is.  There are engineering tradeoffs.  We must consider cost.  For that matter, warranty should be taken into account if the component will be used far more than originally anticipated too.  It could lead to the next model year simply using a larger heater instead.  There are many unknowns.  There are a few things we can surmise though:  Unfortunately, links are even cheaper.  This is a lesson about interpreting intent... as well as things being lost in language, engineer and consumer translation.  From what the automaker sets out to deliver to what we supposedly will get takes on a life of its own.  That's why it is better to seek out clues for setting realistic expectations.  You know, critical thinking.  In this case, Toyota stands to gain in several regards from rolling out an update that's backward compatible.  Think about the mess that would be created having to support multiple software versions.  Dealers would not be happy.  Reviewers would exacerbate confusion.  Shoppers would have no idea what they were getting.  And of course, critics would have a field day their narratives.

11-02-2023

The Problem.  This is the kind of argument you can see going nowhere: "Besides, I do not view carbon dioxide as a pollutant unlike those who continuously frighten people about "Man Made Global Warming"."  He had already made up his mind and clearly didn't understand the relation to climate.  Even if you can justify dependency on oil and somehow dismiss smog-related emissions, it simply makes no sense not striving to consume less.  There is only a finite amount of oil available.  Knowing this particular individual is in his 90's, decisions of legacy likely happened long ago.  It makes appealing emotionally difficult.  So, I gave it a shot using an analogy which seemed fitting:  Pollutant or not, it doesn't matter.  The problem is like aging.  Years are a resource, like carbon-based fuel.  We have a limited quantity available.  When gone, game over.  That's why we are not only trying to switch over to renewable fuel, we are also trying to make vehicles more efficient.  In other words, the problem still exists regardless of the label it is given.

11-02-2023

Road Trip Car.  We are starting to see emergence of critical thinking: "I also think Subaru knew this was not a road trip car, since they offer a free ICE loaner for road trips.  If you don't mind stopping for an hour every 180-210 miles it's fine."  I like to see that.  There's some actual substance instead of the usual outright dismissal.  Here's my contribution to that discussion:  I always thought it was odd that anyone would take any SUV shaped vehicle with high ground-clearance on a road trip.  Very long trips are rare anyway.  When we visit my sister-in-law in Wyoming, taking our Prius Prime makes way more sense.  With those aerodynamics and such an absence of places to charge, cruising at 80 mph in a PHEV is clearly the better choice.  Going up north (Minnesota) though... like oh so many weekend warriors... that's an easy voyage for a Solterra (in my case, a bZ4X).  All I need to do is charge just once somewhere along the way.  For me, there is a Tesla Supercharger location with MagicDock.  That works great!  Another appears to be getting built along that same route.  So, it could really just mean what "road trip" means to you.

11-01-2023

Not First.  I always find comments like this amusing: "Toyota's first EV effort sabotaged by strange styling, cabin ergonomics, and short range."  Absence of background is one thing.  But to take an assumption and use it to justify an attack, that's another... especially when it is so easy to prove false.  As for measures being subjective, that's a pointless battle.  So, I focused in the misinformation of supposedly being first:  Even if you disregard RAV4 EV, there's the EV model of CH-R and UX300e.  In fact, UX300e is getting an upgrade this year to increase range.  With regard to the attempt spin Toyota's willingness to take risk as sabotage, it would be best to study history.  Toyota did the same thing with Prius.  That paid off tremendously, paving the way for Highlander hybrid and Camry hybrid.  Don't overlook bZ3 either; it is pretty much the BEV equivalent of Corolla... which makes the upcoming bZ5X as a BEV equivalent of Highlander (to be built in Kentucky using batteries from North Carolina) far from first... negating the point of the sabotage claim.

11-01-2023 Sales Expectations.  The title of today's article says it all: "Toyota Cuts EV Sales Expectations By 39 Percent As Its Profits Soar Thanks To Hybrids".  That will inevitable stir the troublemakers.  Before even giving them a chance, I posted the following:

Since primary focus this year was a strong fiscal recovery, setting the stage to take on investment needed for BEV production, lowering of immediate sales expectations shouldn't be a big deal.  After all, Toyota's reputation is based upon long-term planning.  It's a reality enthusiasts can't stand, since they favor quick gains instead.

It comes down to how all of the new plants will be funded.  We see Ford & GM backing off their BEV promises due to funding challenges.  VW has their own unique mess to deal with.  Watching Toyota leverage ICE phaseout to capitalize on hybrids as a bridge is a good thing, no matter how much the "stop gap" rhetoric will try to convince you otherwise.

It simply made no sense watching other legacy automakers roll the dice on rapid BEV adoption.  We saw warning signs everywhere of an upcoming plateau, where it was obvious infrastructure needed to play catch up.  Ordinary consumers are far too fickle to deal with what early-adopters tolerated.

In the meantime, we are watching Toyota gain ground with their own BEV endeavors.  The second round of software updates for bZ4X is already underway.  That is a rapid turnaround based on real-world feedback.  They will be well prepared to appeal to their own showroom shoppers.

Like it or not, Toyota is playing the game the way it wants to.  The party enthusiasts had claimed they were late to was just a tailgate party, celebrating with a limited audience.  The actual game to win over mainstream customers is only now just beginning.

11-01-2023

First Snow.  There's nothing like your very first snowfall to startup the new winter season being on the eve of Halloween when your wife is out on a business trip.  That meant squeezing in some photos while trying to put in a full day at work while also clearing the sidewalks and setting up for giving treats to the kids outside.  It normally isn't that cold for us on this day in Minnesota.  In fact, sometimes we have pleasant warm evenings.  Not this year though.  I had to shovel the snow and put down a little salt to prevent ice.  There's too many opportunities to slip.  Putting up lights & pumpkins was a must too, as well as the table for our non-candy offerings in addition to treats.  Anywho, I managed to sneak out for a coffee in the afternoon... making it an excuse to take a side road with the hopes of a photo-op.  Sure enough, I got that opportunity.  It's just a single photo, but it came out nice...  bZ4X Photo Album 12

10-31-2023

See It Now?  Some will never see it.  They simply don't pay close enough attention.  I enjoy pointing it out:  How are you drawing that "too much" conclusion?  Toyota's stance has always been to take the time to do it right.  Watching others rush to market, while their fanboys push a "behind" narrative, has been a fascinating tortoise & hare story playing out right before our eyes.  To achieve sustainable profit, supporting both high-volume & flexibility, it's not cheap.  Meanwhile, we see bZ4X checking the boxes Toyota deemed initially most important.  Despite being built on an expensive platform that's slow to assemble, it still enables propulsion systems hardware & software refinements.  That is exactly what's needed while construction of new battery & vehicle plants take place.  Notice how Toyota has already begun rollout of its second major software update?  As for concerns about funding, Toyota has been very successfully phasing out ICE to provide exactly that.  Leveraging profit their new hybrids & PHEV deliver, combined with associated carbon-emission reductions, is a responsible means of managing financial risk.  So what if fanboys don't like having to exhibit patience?  There's far less likelihood with this approach that BEV growth from Toyota won't face some of the same stumbles as other legacy automakers... tortoise... hare... see it now?

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