March 22, 2024 - March 30, 2024
Last Updated: Sun. 4/21/2024
page #1271
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BOOK
INDEX
| 3-30-2024 |
PHEV or BEV? That question gets asked a lot now. It's nice having extensive experience to share on the topic: For me after 6 years of owning PHEV, where most daily miles were entirely electric, the switch to BEV a year ago was easy. For most, between EVSE install expense, range anxiety, and not wanting to spend time charging while on the road, there is little incentive to go entirely electric though. Owning a PHEV strongly encourages the upgrade at home to run a 240-volt line for level-2 charging without any timing pressure. That sets up the household for their next new vehicle purchase to be a BEV, while at the same time reinforces the benefits of EV driving and turns them into advocates for plugging in. It will become a no-brainer to purchase PHEV over time... even for those with challenging situations. From just a standard outlet, that 120-volt connection can deliver a steady 12-amp feed. That rate of 1.44 kW for 10 hours will provides 14.4 kWh of electricity. For a plug-in vehicle with an average efficiency of 3.5 mi/kWh, that comes to an EV range of 50 miles. |
| 3-29-2024 |
More Propaganda. Gotta like seeing this title: "Battery-Electric Vehicles Will Prevail Over Hybrids". It was more of the same, that propaganda misrepresenting plug-in hybrids. This particular line in the article is what set me off: "Analysis of extensive real-world data collected from PHEVs driving millions of miles in the US found..." Greenwash of the past was collection of data that was easily sourced, from fleets. We knew that meant limited vehicle sampling with restricted use. That's the way businesses operate. It's not representative of ordinary consumers. It also can be extremely misleading. Last time, we discovered only gas expenses were reimbursed. If you wanted electric driving, you had to pay for the electricity yourself. Who would want to that? Needless to say, the FUD that study spread gives good reason to hold the same suspicion for this one. I pointed that out with: No analysis source is a big red flag. We have misrepresentation from use of cherry-picked & outdated data on a regular basis. People should know better than to trust claims without having the ability to make the determination on their own. Too many people seek out propaganda material to support their beliefs, legitimizing efforts to undermine in the process. Seeing no reference to how this analysis was performed is a blatant sign the study itself should be questioned. |
| 3-28-2024 |
4680 Failure? It's intriguing when someone else posts
the question you've been wanting to ask: "So, is this admission from Tesla that their 4680 is
a failure?" I had seen that inventory was being diverted from
CyberTruck allocations to use for energy storage, but there was never really
any reason why mentioned. Assumption would be that demand is higher
for storage use. Seeing anything related to design shortcomings for
automotive use won't ever happen though. Fanboys are far too
protective for that; however, a teardown provided a hint in that regard.
Why does CyberTruck have extra space within it's battery-pack area?
Supposedly, Rivian will be using a taller format cell instead... 4695.
Whatever the case, it was nice to see evidence of critical thinking.
Gasp! Here's my contribution to the discussion: 4680 never made any sense for entry-level
vehicles. Enthusiasts turned a blind-eye though, helping reinforce the
Innovator's Dilemma situation. Then when a large portion of the 4680
production began being used for energy-storage rather than CyberTruck, the
size of the problem became difficult to ignore. CATL has wanted to
significantly grow their business. A significant source of that growth
potential would likely come from North America. In fact, that's why the
partnership with Toyota ended up delivering CATL batteries in the AWD model
of bZ4X and Subaru's Solterra. Both LFP and IRA have presented an
interesting twist for CATL. They have made great strides with LFP. Not being
eligible for tax-credits from importing and having challenges setting up in
the United States (note their struggle with Ford's partnership) if nothing
else, has caused delay. Hopefully, Tesla will be able to make it work. |
| 3-26-2024 |
Pathetic. Yet another PHEV study, which enabled more comments like this: "When you have pathetic attempts from Toyota..." Fortunately, the echo-chamber is losing audience. As hybrids continue on their upward trajectory, finally becoming the obvious standard to replace traditional vehicles, seeing them adopt a plug takes little effort. It's like watching manual transmissions fade away. I remember how their were certain uses where they were preferred and provided clear advantage. There was a point where that no longer was the case. That is the precipice, an end reached. This recognition of progress undermines the narrative of many enthusiasts. They don't want to see the base moving forward in simple to follow steps. From engine-only, to hybrid, to plug-in hybrid is not the path they want for reaching electric-only. Their obsession with skipping those in between steps, not needing a bridge at all, is the picture they have been carefully painting... which the masses have no interest in... hence their message being stuck in an echo-chamber. Needless to say, I was delighted to point out their futility: Sorry, but calling 40 miles with heat-pump pathetic is just plain wrong, basically mindless rhetoric. 40 miles is more than most people drive daily. That means you can effortlessly enjoy EV by simply recharging overnight. Knowing how PHEV supports the purchase of a BEV next makes me wonder what happened to critical thinking. |
| 3-25-2024 |
Downmarket. It's nice to seem some critical thinking:
"That's discouraging. It seems that moving upmarket is the
only option in the short-term to avoid ballooning debt (which is currently
rather expensive), to keep the money coming in for automakers, until they
can scale up." Sadly, there isn't any quick fix available.
That's why enthusiasts post feel-good comments rather than actually
addressing the problem. They know what's needed... patience... which
is something they clearly lack. Ironically, encouraging news comes
from looking upmarket... but that only works with the bottom-up approach.
It is the expectation, to build upward. For those taking top-down,
moving up is the wrong direction. I was all too happy to provide some
insight to the situation, ending with a reminder for patience in that
pursuit of profit: Legacy automakers, with the exception of Toyota, don't have any high-volume offering to leverage ICE phaseout and BEV penetration. Toyota has the option of using hybrid profit during the transition. It's a platform that's directly competitive with ICE and requires no consumer or dealer behavior change. Overwhelming proof of the potential is their target of 45% for 2024. Scaling up will be painful for everyone. The one-trick-pony approach has been great for proving market potential. We can see VW and Hyundai/Kia staging for a variety of choices. Heck, even Toyota will have several models within the next 2 years. Innovation, like giga-casting, will be essential for volume without incurring massive debt. But that's all next-gen design. A downmarket goal that won't be quick for anyone. |
| 3-25-2024 |
Didn't Research. I got my answer to the lack of being objective: "you're a dick". That type of attitude is what comes from someone who wanted to vent about their decision. It's how buyer's remorse plays out when they know they made a mistake and get called out on it. Had he been trying to look at the situation in a constructive manner, the trading for would have been Song... the BYD crossover. Getting a Seal... the BYD sedan... doesn't make sense. I did wonder what the reference was to replacement parts. Was there an actual problem or was he simply waiting for repair from an accident. Far too often, you never find out from online encounters like that. Heck, sometimes there actually isn't even a problem. Misunderstandings are common this early in rollout. It always takes a few years to establish expectations, since real-world data is what overcomes all the noise from rhetoric. Whatever the case, I highly doubt we'll hear from this individual again. He had his opportunity to vent. |
| 3-25-2024 |
Being Objective. From time to time, someone new will posts a comment which you have no clue what the person's true situation actually was. For example: "My bz4x won't charge above 33kw/h and has been with the dealer for 3 replacement parts since January. They loaned me a brand new bz4x which charges around 90kw/h but still short of its advertised 150kw/h. Range is terrible on this one at around 250 miles. Trading for a byd seal soon." It makes you wonder if they didn't research at all, had unrealistic expectations, or they are simply a troll making trouble. Replies to that kind of post are easy, anyone making a "Should have bought a Tesla." comment clearly isn't trying to be objective. What a waste of everyone's time. I pointed out: Advertised doesn't mean much, since all estimates for all EVs only represent ideal conditions. In other words, SOC must be low and temperature must be high. Outside of that criteria, results will fall short. It gets even more complicated when pre-conditioning and charger-status come into play. So without detail, you're not sharing anything informative. |
| 3-23-2024 |
Deployed in the UK. It is awesome having the opportunity to exchange posts with those overseas. Discussions are so much more informative with a diverse audience. In this case, it really paid off: "There have been ones deployed in the UK that would be meet the NEVI requirements here as far as payments go at least, the screen and NFC reader is just stupidly tucked under the charging dock on the side. I can only assume that any Tesla installs or sells here would offer the same parts." That is quite a revelation. I'm hoping someone will be able to supply a photo of that. In the meantime, my response back was: I would suspect branding to be a big deal. That probably equates to leaving as much space on the face of the charger as possible for the third-party to wrap as they please. It's a gamble on Tesla's part make that choice, knowing how differences challenging the status quo are a hard sell when it comes to the mainstream audience. |
| 3-23-2024 |
Third-Party Superchargers. An article was published
today about the first third-party to use V4 of Tesla's Supercharger in
Europe. Longer cords is a really big deal. In fact, that is the
primary benefit... since Europe has had a plug standard since 2018.
They all use CCS-2, which makes sharing chargers much easier. Here, we
have what became NACS for Tesla use and CCS-1 for everyone else.
That's why focus is on length in Europe. Being short meant blocking
the adjacent spot. V4 addresses that. Looking at the photos
shared, I noticed something obviously missing. Those stations don't
have anything other than a cord. I point that out with: Not being NEVI compliant is a barrier to rollout here. Why would any third-party choose hardware lacking federal subsidy requirements? To qualify, the charger must provide a screen & payment interface. I have talked to countless ordinary consumers, as well as plug-in owners, who simply don't want to deal with having a collection of apps on their phone or even an account enabling plug & charge. They state a preference for just tapping a credit-card. They want it as simple as using a gas pump, period. Pretending mainstream shoppers won't be intimidated by DC fast-charging is incredibly naive. As a BEV owner who was able to take advantage of MagicDock right away, it has been interesting to watch NACS progress. Tesla is obviously striving to get pieces in place to be a major hardware, software and service provider. Availability of V4 can't come soon enough. New locations being built with V3 still is quite disappointing, especially those that don't support NACS. Why? I'm hoping the really nice location that opened up last fall (Little Falls, MN. 8 Superchargers up to 250kW. Available 24/7) will make up for that absence of NACS support by swapping out V3 for V4. Whatever the case, having to deal with cords that are too short is a "shortcoming" for everyone using the chargers. That needs to quickly be addressed before we end up having to deal with backlash from blocked spots. |
| 3-23-2024 |
Antithesis Loss. Need to tell the story of a
conflicted market is what stirs the media. They thrive on that
resulting attention. Heck, they even attracted me with this article
title today: "Toyota's focus on hybrid vehicles over BEVs because of
anticipated lithium shortage." It is a misrepresentation,
obscuring the situation by making it seem like a non-issue when looking the
bigger picture. I was happy to call that out too. Since this was
a new venue I was posting it, one that clearly thrives on the "Kodak"
narrative, I was quite curious what I comment like this will stir: That is an overly simplistic portrayal of the lithium situation. It wasn't overall supply. It was supply source. Look no further than the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) bill for confirmation. EV tax-credits were directed to domestic supply, intentionally blocking out imported lithium sources. Toyota saw that coming, as evidence of their production facility being built in North Carolina. Toyota also knows it is irresponsible to turn a blind-eye to ICE sales, which is exactly what others in the industry have been doing. Seeing what the IRA bill and the resulting NEVI (National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) program has brought about is very encouraging. It is still no excuse for neglect across the rest of the fleet. By Toyota aggressively pushing hybrid technology to phaseout ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) only vehicles, they are encouraging change at their dealers and enabling easier plug-in transition. How will other automakers deal with showroom floor challenges? Sharp contrast in offerings will continue to be a problem that simply doesn't vanish overnight. Much like the lithium supply situation, there's more at play than the impression current talking-points convey. |
| 3-23-2024 |
Their Worst Fear. I had clearly hit upon a weakness. He's seeing cracks in his strategy. You can tell when the story changes. Toyota was supposedly anti-EV, preferring hydrogen instead. That changed to Toyota dragging their feet, kicking & screaming. That changed to racing to catch up, being so far behind. That changed to Toyota sabotaging the market, by delivering an inferior vehicle. Each change came about when detail was revealed to disprove the claim. Upgrades delivered in the 2024 confirm Toyota is taking the situation seriously by addressing criticism quickly & directly. That's their worst fear. Doing that means the loss of an antagonist. Not being able to frame Toyota as an enemy exposes their own shortcoming... hence so much effort to avoid detail. I find it incredibly telling and was happy to point that out: There it is, the avoidance. No matter what is posted be objective and help constructive exchange along, it's a turn-around to make it personal. Just like that brain-dead delay tactic, the purpose of evade is obvious. In fact, gauging importance is as simple watching reaction. I find it telling how "price" and "utility" and "longevity" were singled out. Someone must be really worried about what's in the works. |
| 3-22-2024 |
Consumer Product. He made a comment attacking me with
the usual "behind" rhetoric. He wants to change the spin to
make it look like there is somehow an admission of guilt based upon the
market supposedly now being BEV ready. I turned that right around,
asking: "What is the criteria for "real consumer product" ?"
It was obvious what was playing out. I have seen it countless times in
the past... fear. When there is a genuine concern that the stance of
an enthusiast is threatened, they attack. It's pretty much always the
same approach too. After getting caught evading detail, they make it
personal: "Price point, utility, longevity. YOU want to argue and call
out 'contrast', while consumers want a product that allows them to continue
on using the product that allows the best bang for the buck." I
found it interesting that he highlight "contrast" without any
explanation or reference. Since it was just more of the usual vague, I
called him out on the 3 criteria listed: I want detail, not vague references. Enthusiasts do everything in their power to avoid actually stating a goal, something measurable with milestones & consequence. Saying "price" and "utility" and "longevity" is nothing but rhetoric. No substance... For example: PRICE = $35,000 UTILITY = 200-lb tongue UTILITY = 2,500-lb towing LONGEVITY = 200,000 miles Why it is so hard for those who claim to be supporters to actually commit to anything? My guess is fear of accountability. They have been burned so many times in the past... Since I'm not afraid, here's more: RANGE = 275 miles AC = 7.2 kW DC = 150 kW Those all seem like reasonable minimums. It just blows my mind how some evade quantifiers. They know it is only a matter of time before those traits become the norm and what makes their specs standout will be dismissed as niche... want verses need. |
| 3-22-2024 |
To The Masses. Here's another encouraging post example: "I love driving it, and love Toyota, but they could've done better with the XLE awd model." I often like to conclude by asking a question: Back when Prius was rolled out, the saying "JUST DRIVE IT" became the mantra. Now with bZ4X, that saying has become "KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE". In this case, what does "better" actually refer to? Each person you ask has a different feeling about what's most important. Then when you finally identify common request, there are varying degrees of how much. The fact that there is no decisive answer is exactly why Toyota uses gen-1 as a shakeout platform. Notice how other BEV owners still don't agree, despite having years of opportunity to figure out how to present that technology to the masses? |