4-23-2018 |
New Propaganda. Seeing the extreme trouble plug-in
vehicles are experiencing with audience, it makes sense that more focus is
being directed toward autonomous features. Problem is, people have no
clue what that really means. They are completely unaware that
different levels of automated control exist. We are hearing "driverless"
mentioned more and more without any technical detail. It's unfortunate
that this avoidable mix up is taking place. It didn't need to happen.
But the challenges involved with rollout of new technology will be a problem
regardless of approach. Much of it stems from how vehicles were
promoted in the past. Automakers appeal to emotion, rather than
educating about need. Want is a much stronger marketing tool.
The catch is, seeing a vehicle slide sideways, climb up a mountain side, or
towing a massive trailer is something most owners won't ever do. With
autonomous features, that isn't the case. They will be exploiting
whatever that technology has to offer. The extreme will be normal,
since we're talking about safety... not bragging rights. There's a
profound difference... hence the problem. That's really messing up
expectations for plug-in vehicles. It's an unfortunate situation that
could have been avoided. Now we have to deal with some of the
misconceptions resulting from lack of understanding. Bummer. Oh
well. For now, I'm just going to keep my posts on the topic brief: Sounds like some people have no idea what
"driverless" actually requires. Many of the safety features provide the base
technology. It's like the tech sharing between electric and
fuel-cell, where many assume they are mutually exclusive. They are not. |
4-22-2018 |
Earth Day. There were many plug-in vehicle events to
choose from, especially when you have Prius Prime... since there are so few
in Minnesota still. Inventory has been basically non-existent.
That means sharing the presentation area with quite a few of the other
plug-in choices. There were 5 Teslas at first. More kept coming.
I'm not sure how many were there total, but they overwhelmed the Bolts &
Volts in attendance. I parked at the end, where a lot of the foot
traffic came. The bright blue really stands out among the sea of black
& gray. It was a great opportunity to compare notes on how to
entice traditional vehicle owners to take a closer look at plug-in choices.
Selling the idea of a plug-in hybrid is quite a bit different from an
electric-only. Both have terminology & measures the typical consumer
has absolutely no understanding of. Even the basics, like consumption
rate, are beyond most everyone's experience. They simply have no idea
what their current vehicle gets for MPG. Without even that, there's no
possible way to discuss anything else, like gallons-per-month.
Influences like temperature are totally unknown. Not ever thinking
about topics like that make the setting of expections pretty much
impossible. That's why seller guzzlers is so much easier.
Automakers don't bother. They just appeal to emotion instead.
Try that in a parking lot when you've got 10 to 20 seconds of attention.
This is why I had those "Info Sheets" way back in the beginning.
It was a for-dummies type handout, featuring a few photos along with
carefully thought out wording... just enough to entice the person to want
more information. Whether they ask there or follow-up on their own
later, you need to make the best of those few precious seconds.
Today's research on how to do that went well. |
4-21-2018 |
600 Miles. It was a bizarre road-trip. We would
just barely miss the approaching winter storm... which ended up dumping 14.6
inches of snow at home. It was coming down so fast 40 miles into the
200-mile drive that traffic slowed to 40 mph at times on the highway,
despite the constant flow keeping lanes clear. At the halfway point,
we stopped for a late lunch. That location was just beyond the nasty
part of the storm. It was just normal snow at that point. About
a 30 minutes from there is point at which things got interesting. A
semi truck & trailer had very recently been pushed off the road. There
was a small strip of exposured highway where the snow had blown across and
turned to ice. The Prime got pushed into the next lane as I slowly
drove by the people standing outside their vehicles looking at the wreckage
in the ditch. It was a surreal experience. Too bad I hadn't been
filming at the time. Oh well. The rest of the time up north was
quite uneventful. Without a place to plug in, I ended up using
Charge-Mode a number of times. That worked extremely well for those
times I needed to drive somewhere and wanted to avoid engine warm-up... a
penalty well worth avoiding. Overall, you save gas by judiciously
choosing when to use the engine and when not to. In this case, it
worked especially well, since we still had several inches of snow to deal
with prior to the drive back... which was much warmer! I averaged 65
MPG on the way back, despite it being almost all highway (some at 65 and
some at 70 mph). Unfortunately, I forgot to look at the results for
the trip as a whole when I got home. It's easy to forget when going
weeks between refilling the tank, even on an escape like this. I
filled up the end of last month, once while on the trip, and won't again
until sometime next month. |
4-20-2018 |
RAV4 PHV. Another Prime model of hybrid from Toyota
should be obvious. Why wouldn't that step to diversify be taken?
After all, it should be easier to fit a larger battery-pack into a larger
vehicle, especially one that rides up higher. Prius already
demonstrated how simple the augmentation was too. Of course, that
addition of a one-way clutch to take advantage of more electricity for added
power is such an easy step, many like to spin it as a hack after the fact.
Accepting the possiblity that Toyota planned for such an upgrade, rather
than being forced to completely redesign, is too much... despite all the
evidence supporting a system that considered future upgrades many years ago.
Whatever the perspective, it doesn't matter anymore. There's nothing
to argue at this point. The following translated phrase was shared
today from a Japanese article published early this year: "Meanwhile, we
will start production of RAV 4 based PHV at Takaoka Plant (Toyota City,
Aichi prefecture) even in the spring of 20." My response to that
was as simple as the design:
There is no reason not to expect the progress of hybrid upgrades to
continue. RAV4 is a sensible choice in the product-line to get a
larger battery and plug. |
4-19-2018 |
Meaningless Labels. In terms of getting people out of
traditional vehicles, Toyota is the undisputed leader. So naturally,
there are some who work hard to change what leadership means. It's
easy to slip into that rabbit-hole too. That's why stating goals is
vital. Notice today's attempt:
"Yes, it lost its position as industry leader in a market segment."
This is where pride gets in the way. Some get so hung up on labels,
they forget about purpose. When you create an indifference to what's
trying to be accomplished, progress becomes increasingly more difficult.
This is where the problem of diminishing returns come into play. The
perspection of leadership being a measure of EV range is the most common
example. Does the higher price for more actually result in more sales?
At what point does the difference become a moot point, or worse, a
deterrent? Needless to say, I have much at stake in this topic.
If the effort to replace traditional vehicles is impeded by labels, I'm
going to draw attention to the problem:
That claim of "leader" is meaningless without a qualifier. There are
many categories of measure. To which are you referring?
This is
business 101 stuff. You need to know what will be delivered. EV Range has
absolutely no relation to Customer Satisfaction; yet, both are priorities. Then
there's the monetary measures, like those related to Sales Volume,
Gross Profit, and Dividend Payments. Each automaker will place different
weights on the importance of those. There's also the difficult to evaluate
categories, like Environmental Impact. Take all that, then consider
the profoundly different mission statements...
"To accelerate the advent of
sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to
market as soon as possible."
"To attract and attain customers with
high-valued products and services and the most satisfying ownership
experience in America." Think about how that influences approach and
decisions. In other words, what type of leadership are you referring to? |
4-19-2018 |
Toyota Downplay. We see it all the time. There
is always a few narratives at play. Each requires you to disregard
something history from the past to make it work. Omitting facts is a
common technique for misleading. So, that's a dead giveaway of
intent... especially when coming from a source known to do it, like he did
today: "The batteries would not have come as far as they have without
Tesla, Nissan, and GM bringing cars to market." The massive
investment Toyota made to develop & advance the hybrid batteries is clear
evidence of that not being the case. We also now the market cannot
move forward with deeper penetration until more players are involved.
This is why Toyota leased their technology to other automakers. It's a
risk reduction for everyone involved. Nissan used tech from Toyota.
Toyota used tech from Tesla. We saw the cross-licensing with Ford, as
well as the rollout timing cooperation. Now, we see Subaru is joining
in to do the same thing. So, the effort to portray Toyota as a
recipient rather than a participant doesn't match what those with good
memories (or an extensive blog) can recall. References to the past
usually fall on deaf ears though. Antagonists just dismiss facts they
don't like. That means taking a more general approach to counter
claims: What does "far" actually mean? Toyota has been
pushing the development of affordable air-cooled battery technology all
along. You can't just pretend the chemistry, packaging, and
production efforts they pioneered & pursued. Sounds like the "more
range" argument verses the effort to reach affordable markets. |
4-19-2018 |
Lots Of Potential. It's both exciting & intrigued to
witness the stir that upcoming plug-in hybrid from Subaru is causing.
The most obvious is the realization that there is already an AWD model of
Prius available. All-Wheel-Drive in Japan isn't what you'd expect for
that market. But then again, they don't favor SUV use the way we do
here. In fact, that's why RAV4 hybrid is so popular here.
Knowing Subaru will be using some tech from Toyota means there's
anticipation of some type of annoucement for a RAV4 plug-in offering on the
way. I suspect it will follow, allowing the competition to get a
foothold first. That's what Toyota did with Ford. Giving them a
year lead with Escape hybrid prior to rolling out Highlander hybrid was a
very effective way to build market. Some type of shared mission needs
to be expressed. Growth is far more difficult without a sense of
partnership or even competition. Going at it alone is limiting.
I started up today's discussion on Evoltis with:
This offering will be a nice demonstration of the platform flexibility. People
like to portray Prius tech as slow, but that requires the
omission of how it is used in other vehicles. For example, the new Camry
hybrid offers more power, yet still delivers 52 MPG. We all know
battery-packs can be upgraded along the way too. In fact, mid-cycle
improvements are becoming an expectation. That means Subaru will
have a choice among a variety of configurations. We won't know what engine,
motor, battery combination they'll choose for Evoltis. But the effort to
demonstrate flexibility will be achieved. There's lots of potential. |
4-19-2018 |
Understanding Business. The major of people I
communicate with online don't have much business background. In fact,
I would say a large number don't have any at all. They make claims
that don't fall into any type of logical approach for sustainability.
They focus almost exclusively on engineering merit. That certainly is
an aspect of business success, but it is most definitely not what you bet
the farm on. GM learned that lesson the hard way with Volt.
Their enthusiasts insisted for years the fastest & farther approach was all
that would be necessary. They were wrong, very wrong. That
takeaway from all those arguments was learning just how deep some of that
stubborness runs. Whether they base their belief on assumptions or
simply narrow their focus to a specific ability, it doesn't matter.
They are unwilling to accept another perspective. So, having to deal
with stuff like this elsewhere years later is very much the anticipated
outcome: "You are really hard to communicate with..." It was yet
another example of forced context, where they cannot follow what you are
saying because you are not saying what they expect. That become
frustrated that you stand firm with a stance they don't understand.
Having researched the issue so extensively, I know they aren't grasping the
concept of other view-points and other needs. This is why
fundamentals, like the tradeoff of efficiency for the sake of being cleaner,
still eludes some. Anywho, my attempt to close up this line of arguing
was: How many economic, accounting, and advertising classes have you taken? That
lack of a strong business background makes communication extremely
difficult, if not impossible. I often find engineers beating their
heads up against the wall trying to get their message across but failing to
understand when management expects an entirely different means of expressing
purpose & process. The reverse is true as well. For a rude
awakening about related issues, I suggest a course in Six-Sigma. This
is why I kept repeating "Know your audience" over and over again. |
4-19-2018 |
Uninformed. Obviously angered by my reponse, kept the
information flowing. This was becoming a "not the same"
effort, yet another lesson history has taught about how to deal with
irrational defensive posts. Seeing only their own narrow perspective,
you do everything you can to widen the view. Force them (or at least
lurkers) to recognize that there is more at play than just the facts they
choose to present. It's a form of cherry-picking that comes from not
being aware of everything involved. I posted:
That's my
response to your claim, which is far better than what I've dealt with in the
past... denial. I asked the fanboys "Who is the market for Volt?"
countless times over the years. Being well informed, I was well aware
they were just leaving in the moment seeing sales only from an early-adopter
perspective. The problem of subsidies going away and audience changing
was outright dismissed too.
Those fanboys absolutely refused to
acknowledge the flat sales (consistently between 1,600 and 1,700 monthly)
would become an incredible challenge to grow when faced with innovator's
dilemma. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. GM targeted that
same group for the gen-2 upgrade. The result has been a drop in sales
instead of the much needed growth. Oops!
Toyota is running a
business that depends upon reliable profit. That means delivering a
product that's simple to sells to the masses, those mainstream consumers who
have very different purchase priorities than the fanboys. They want a
nice balance for a good price. That's why Prius has been such a great
on-going offering.The introduction of a plug brings about the
necessity to carefully evaluate what their ordinary showroom shoppers will
find a draw when doing comparisons at the dealer. That's a drastically
different approach from what Tesla is doing... a non-legacy automaker with a
limited product choice and basically no showroom. |
4-19-2018 |
Delusional. He posted this, as an obvious lashing
out: "pretty sad that Toyota will be very last to the party"
Insulting Toyota was the only option he had left at that point. So, he
did. My reply got that one-word response: "Delusional".
Recognizing that pattern from that past was quite reassuring. Now, the
die-hard Tesla supporters are beginning to attack. It's that same old
"vastly superior" attitude again. That means using the same
approach to dealing with it would be wise: Know your audience.
They aren't interested in an early-adopter party or even being first.
Selling something in high-volume that's both profitable & sustainable is a
huge challenge. The path for Toyota is very different from that of
Tesla. Each could achieve the same criteria just fine, but premature
celebrations aren't a good idea. There's a lot of resistance to come.
Changing the status quo is far more difficult than appealing to early
adopters. |