Prius Personal Log  #973

October 22, 2019  -  October 25, 2019

Last Updated:  Mon. 2/10/2020

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10-25-2019

Volume.  It's the part of supporting plug-in vehicles rarely taken seriously.  Everyone wants lots to be sold, but they really don't invest in the issues preventing growth.  The best we tend to get is infrastructure build out... which does nothing whatsoever to entice dealer interest.  Inventory expansion is a matter of diversification, not just pushing more of the same vehicle.  The term "volume" should really be expressed as "spread" to more accurately express the desired outcome.  Think about how different RAV4 is from Prius.  The plug-in models, perhaps both could carry the "Prime" label, show an undeniable effort to step forward... well, 2 steps actually.  Yet, some don't see it that way.  In fact, some don't even notice how quickly change is happening.  They stay fixated on the past.  In a way, it is a game.  Learn from the previous play, then take advantage of that right away.  Realistically, most people don't have a good grasp of scale.  Issues of quantity & time are often misunderstood... especially when there are so many intentionally trying to misrepresent.  I try my best to share helpful facts to keep everyone aware of the bigger picture:  That chart shows Toyota expects to have over half their sales non-traditional within the next decade.  That's serious phaseout of guzzlers, a very high volume.  What other automaker is striving to achieve change on that scale?  Specifically with regard to the Ford topic, how much will a Mustang-Inspired Electric SUV transform the rest of their fleet?  What kind of volume should we expect from them?  GM's failure with Volt, an unprofitable niche without any successor of that technology, should have taught those here about setting realistic expectations.  Appealing to showroom shoppers is far more difficult than pleasing early-adopters.  Also, keep in mind there are only so many battery cells available.  Even with serious production ramp-up, there's still the reality that 1 EV will consume roughly the quantity of cells needed for 5 PHEV.  (60kWh distributed as five 12kWh capacity packs.)  That makes a big difference when trying to reach a massive & diverse audience.  Lastly, note that your source is nearly 2 years old now.  Quite a bit has changed in the industry since then.

10-25-2019

Actions?  Level of desperation is easy to detect at this point.  In fact, it's astonishing how bad things are getting.  In the past, we had rhetoric.  That was substanceless online babble.  Very little was provided in terms of actual deliverables.  Conquest sales were looked upon as representative of what would happen following the early-adopter stage.  So, there wasn't any real outlook in terms of what actions were expected next.  GM was given a free pass to exploit.  Notice how different the situation is now with VW.  We get dates & quantities on a regular basis.  They may seem rather far-fetched and downright unrealistic (since no actual audience has been defined), but that's still way more than what we ever got for Volt.  Much more is expected from ID and a lot faster.  This is why actions taken by Toyota are so irritating for them.  They see actual change.  That's extremely difficult to argue.  Impact to the status quo can be measured.  Heck, it's so obvious, even ordinary consumers are starting to notice.  I like that.  Dealers do too.  So, it is with great pleasure to post stuff like this now:  You mean Toyota pushing their new TNGA platform across their entire fleet to replace traditional offerings with a wide array of hybrid choices, setting the stage for taking the next step with their e-TNGA platform specifically for EVs?  That's going remarkably well, so much so, the big plant in Kentucky will be switching from Camry production to RAV4 hybrids.  We know that there is a PHEV model of RAV4 on the way too.  How does that not show a fast, profitable, and sustainable means of delivering EV later in high-volume?  Notice how everyone pretends GM's anti-EV campaign with Volt never happened and that VW will magically transform a large portion of their business rapidly to EV choices even though nothing has been delivered yet?  Ford making announcements now about several reveals on the way really don't tell us anything either.  Ford simply stopped producing Energi vehicles and their EV was basically just a showcase vehicle.  Changing the topic to fuel-cells to avoid acknowledgement of the actions taking place is telling.  Toyota understands their audience.  Toyota offers diversity for a variety of market needs.  Toyota's actions clearly confirm that.

10-25-2019

Renewed Rhetoric.  Attacks on Toyota are really ramping up.  That's a sign of increased awareness.  They know change is coming.  The death of Volt revealed serious problems for GM.  Prior to production actually ending, belief was that Bolt would take over.  That idea wasn't even challenged.  Enthusiasts shifted over from EREV to EV without any reason of merit.  There wasn't any substance to support their stance.  Confirmation of that recently is why focus shifted over to Toyota.  Being called out for no having any cards to play with or even any prospects on the horizon is a very uncomfortable position.  Losing battles is one thing.  Losing the entire fronts is another.  Neither plug-in hybrid nor electric-only worked out.  GM is screwed, especially when you step back beyond the technology to notice the chaotic nature of their business.  Production is a disaster.  There's no clear message anymore... hence getting irritated with Toyota.  We see TNGA rollout has been so successful, there's no argument e-TNGA will follow the same process and result in similar returns.  It's the plan GM never had, but should have.  That's why I was constantly on Volt enthusiasts, to the point where their developed a hate for any type of business objective.  Some still do, as I addressed today... witnessing the old rhetoric become renewed:  Why are you spreading such misinformation?  That is clearly incorrect.  A quote from this website a few months ago stated the situation with the following: "In the early 2020s, Toyota would like to introduce 10 BEV models worldwide, including six global models, based on e-TNGA platform."  Just because Toyota is diversifying their offerings by delivering a variety of choices doesn't mean they are ignoring BEV development.  In fact, it's really quite the opposite.  EV propulsion tech from PHEV offerings, like the upcoming RAV4 PHEV, will clearly makes its way into other plug-in vehicles... including those without any gas engine.  Toyota has stated their EV offerings will span many platforms: Compact car, Medium crossover, Medium sedan, Medium minivan, Medium SUV, Large SUV.  In other words, they are much like other automakers, releasing small bits of info telling us about futures rollouts.

10-24-2019

How Much?  Placing value on something immaterial is a challenge.  When it came to hybrids in the beginning, the value of smog & carbon emission reduction was zero... from antagonists.  They absolutely refused to put any monetary attribute on a trait clearly defining the primary purpose of Prius.  They always focused on saving gas.  That was a contributing factor to why Volt had so much of a problem appealing to the green audience.  It was neither an efficient electric-only vehicle nor an efficient hybrid vehicle nor a clean hybrid vehicle.  When you looked at kWh/100 rating, MPG rating, and emission rating, they were all disappointing.  The claim of "vastly superior" was easy to debunk, and without even taking cost into account.  That's why the attitude we see today persists.  It came from years of pushing misrepresentation & downplay agendas.  Their own propaganda backfired.  That's why I continue to ask questions.  Today, it was all about asking for quantification of value rather than just accepting vague comments:  Notice how many "enough" and "get by" and "can live with" comments come from discussions like this?  They all make the same mistake of not knowing audience.  As well of a job supporters try to do to make a compelling justification for avoiding the expense of a 240-volt upgrade, they fail to address security.  Ordinary consumers tend to want a secure feeling of knowing no matter what the circumstances, they'll always be able to recover at home.  With only a 120-volt connection, there is no message of strong confidence.  Think about how much of a draw SUV sales were in the initial boom based upon safety alone.  It made no sense paying so much more for so much less of an efficient vehicle, and there was no proof they were any safer.  (Turns out, they were actually less safe.)  But people were willing to pay that premium anyway.  Knowing that even upon a late evening out (for pleasure or necessity) there will be no worry whatsoever about having enough charge available for the following day for whatever activities take place is worth how much?

10-24-2019

Home Setup.  Online posting isn't just offense & defense of the new technologies.  Sometimes, you actually get to address a constructive topic.  Today, it was about home setup.  There are those who genuinely want to advance a step or a few steps forward.  They seek advice, asking questions with the hope of detail applicable to their situation.  Others are individuals who will go out and teach what they have learned.  That was the case today.  We started with the basics.  This is the message I try to convey to those not even aware of how to start:  40-amp line (240-volts) will deliver 200 miles in 8 hours.  That rule-of-thumb is what we share at plug-in events for the basic knowledge people need as a basis for starting home setup discussions.  Keep in mind, most households have more than one vehicle.  That's why starting out with just a PHEV works out well, since it gets people plugging in right away (no intimidation making the decision at the dealer, knowing 120-volt works fine) and contributes heavily for the desire to upgrade to 240-volt later.  The hope is that will stir interest in running multiple lines at the same time, getting the entire garage/driveway setup complete for all vehicles in a single effort.  It's that entire household need many here fail to address.

10-24-2019

Compliance.  Our president has exploited the reality that misrepresentation of a term or concept often enough will eventually distort its meaning to the point where people forget what it actually means.  That's what we see with "compliance" from antagonists.  They'll portray it as something slightly different, over time spinning it more and more.  It is basically an effort to confuse.  When that happens, there isn't much you can do.  Their undermining has proven effective.  Ask people what "Global Warming" actually means?  Think about the original definition when the term was first coined.  The use of the word "Hybrid" falls into the same category.  It was intentionally misrepresented so often and in so many different ways, what it originally was intended to depict is lost.  Anywho, knowing that, I kept my response brief:  The term "compliance" is so wide of a term, it really doesn't have any meaning anymore.  If you were to claim it is for CARB credits, then we'd point out how the factor & volume numbers actually equate... but you didn't.  There's also the reality that pretty much every new green-tech starts out in the compliance stage before becoming a standard anyway.

10-22-2019

Gotcha!  At some point, the avoiding detail by keeping things vague will fail.  The next move for the antagonist is to just change the topic entirely, but remain within the category.  It is the "What about?" strategy on a less obvious scale.  Today, it was: "You're avoiding the reality of climate change."  He attempted to twist my callout of avoidance by claiming I was doing the same thing.  I wasn't.  It was really just a tolerance for accepting the discussion taking the long way.  I knew it would eventually circle back around to my original point of shared components contributing to the advancement & growth of the fleet.  I was delighted to point that out too:  Gotcha!  Climate Change is very much a priority.  Reality is, deployment of PHEV will have far more of an impact.  So what if their capacities are smaller.  Daily commutes will become electric.  That would be a massive benefit and it would be spread of far more of a popular much, much, much faster than BEV.  No amount of cost-of-ownership debate will change the fact that most people simply don't care.  RAV4 with a plug is something they'd be willing to consider though, even if there is a premium required to get it.  This is why the effort with Prius Prime to prove out the technology prior to taking the next step was absolutely vital.. and the rhetoric of early-adopters meaningless.  Lastly, I find it incredibly amusing how deep your denial goes with regard to the EV driving experience PHEV can deliver.  The hope is you will eventually acknowledge that all-electric is all-electric.

10-22-2019

Avoiding Detail.  Even when you get some type of acknowledgement about a topic being avoided, there's the problem of detail.  That recognition comes with an effort to prevent any type of in-depth discussion.  If something is called out as important over and over again, they'll finally give in but don't allow any further attention.  They just declare a conclusion has been reached and refuse to address it any further.  That's a textbook antagonist move.  I draw attention to that behavior:  You're avoiding the details of how & when... which is why debates with you serve the purpose of helping to reveal weaknesses in the effort to penetrate mainstream markets.  Your use of absolutes and careless disregard for cost & timeline are confirmation that BEV cannot reach that audience of ordinary consumers alone.  Without the bridge PHEV can provide, BEV will just continue to only appeal to enthusiasts.  That big picture is harsh.  No generous $7,500 subsidy makes growth far more difficult.  Dealers aren't interested in a low-profit vehicle which requires a lot of effort to sell.  No amount of debating with me with change that reality.  It's a cold, hard fact.  This is why an approach such as Toyota's, transforming the fleet from traditional to hybrid to plug-in hybrid is a promising step forward.  It requires almost nothing on the part of dealer or salesperson or consumer.  They simply purchase that technology stocked as regular inventory and get a quick how-to during the delivery process after papers have been signed.  That's it.

10-22-2019 Old Tech.  He kept going on and on, attempting to portray the technology Toyota utilizes as outdated.  It's the same old "mature" spinning, where the antagonists tries to convince you that isn't the next natural step following early-adopter acceptance.  You have to wonder if the person doesn't care about mainstream buyers or doesn't understand much (or anything) about the engineering.  With so many component sharing opportunity, being able to leverage reusability on a massive scale should be obvious.  In fact, achieving high-volume production is the most common means of lowering cost.  It's a business fundamental completely absent from these discussions.  I wanted to find out why, so I asked:

Are you really that poorly informed about how PHEVs actually operate?

  - electric-motors
  - battery-packs
  - plug-in chargers
  - electric cooling & heating
  - controllers/software

Each of those elements vital to EV operation are part of the PHEV design.  It's a win-win situation, offering an easy step forward while refining production of those shared components at the same time.

10-22-2019

Too Slow.  Rhetoric is never ending.  Some simply won't give up.  Their spin comes about by omitting detail and misrepresenting outdated information.  That nonsense becomes "facts" they repeatedly post.  Belief is that repetition will reinforce itself.  Since most people don't bother to research, it works well to establish a narrative.  At that point, the antagonist doesn't even have to explicitly mention the perceived shortcoming.  It becomes a common belief.  Catching it early is, hopefully, an effective means of preventing that from playing out.  In the case today, it was pretending Toyota had only recently embraced change.  I'm not going to stoop low enough to repeat what was said.  Quoting a source who doesn't care about the truth gets old and serves to reinforce the narrative.  So, I'm just going to share my response, an opportunity to provide some history & perspective:  February 2012 is when I got my Li-Ion Toyota.  That's over 7.5 years ago, no way "recent" in any respect.  It was a Prius PHV.  The 7-seat model of the regular Prius V followed shortly, also using a Li-Ion battery.  Then in 2015, all Prius models except the ECO switched to using Li-Ion.  The narrative of Toyota being too slow primarily comes from those doing damage-control for GM, which ended up resting on their laurels rather than spreading the tech to the rest of their fleet.  Meanwhile, Toyota actually is spreading their tech.

 

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