Personal Log  #1236

September 6, 2023  -  September 10, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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9-10-2023 Enthusiast Noise.  Sometimes, you have to point out their nonsense really doesn't amount to much:

The cold, hard reality of the situation is Toyota plays the long-game well.  They know how adapt to the market to retain on-going profit.  It's not exciting.  It's not rewarding.  It's a business, ignoring rhetoric from short-term gain.

As in the past, Toyota doesn't listen to the noise enthusiasts make.  If something significant emerges with a benefit to their own core customers, they adjust accordingly.  They don't care how that appears.  Neither do those seriously considering a purchase.

Notice how even the basics still come up and misunderstood even within the online communities who are supposedly far better informed than ordinary consumers?  The concept of what should be looked upon as "efficient" remains an unknown.  Heck, some even endorse electricity-guzzlers.  Isn't the point of being green to not waste energy?

Obsession with power, range and speed will subside as infrastructure is built.  Norms will emerge, breaking out niche configurations to support a balance.  Right now, we don't even have certainties within the tech itself.  Notice conflict related to charging locations & plugs, connection protocols & billing, battery chemistries, etc.?  Mainstream shoppers will simply wait for all that to settle down before seriously considering a purchase.

In the meantime, we'll see Toyota continue to phaseout ICE to spread hybrid adoption to leverage PHEV opportunity... which helps promote upgrades where people park overnight... which will promote BEV purchase later, when the wider market actually is ready.

9-10-2023

Really Expensive.  Seeing this in reply to asking the question of whether or not level-2 charging at home is worth it is quite common.  People look at it as an expense rather than an investment... even when facing the question more than once: "The big problem with installing the bigger outlet is the cost to run it from the opposite side of the house in the basement and then the unit itself.  We've been told it'd be really expensive..."  I shared this experience:  Why add to that uncertainty and possible regret?  We ran 2 new lines 6.5 years ago for just Prius Primes.  They only charge at 3.6 kW, half bZ4X speed.  But we got $1,000 of rebates and have been enjoying discounted electricity ever since.  When the upgrade from PHEV to BEV took place, I didn't need to do anything whatsoever to enjoy the greater benefit from that investment long ago.  At some point you'll be impacted by the expense anyway.  Imagine having to reduce the price of the house when selling later because it lacked charging availability in the garage.  Imagine the years of use.  Don't forget that you can take advantage of pre-conditioning too.  Having a warm cabin in the dead of winter without any impact to range is a benefit not available from 120-volt connections.

9-10-2023

Should I Be Worried?  It was a reasonable question to ask.  Here is the entire post: "When charged to 100%, the range shows as 345 km (214 miles), which is obviously lower than expected.  We've been doing a lot of highway driving and road trips as of late… is that maybe why?  As we get back to more city driving (which is our norm) should the range go back up?  Just want to know if I should be worried that there's a problem with the battery or something."  We will see more and more of that as audience expands and less informed shoppers become owners.  It gets especially complicated as dropping temperatures come into play.  Gotta start discussions somewhere.  They will be on-going.  So, I just try to inform whomever I can whenever I can.  This was today's information exchange:  Saying "lower than expected" reveals being unaware of the same problem all of us have faced for decades.  That value is only an estimate.  Exactly like with traditional vehicles & hybrids, there are influences that reduce efficiency.  In your case, that expectation should be lower due to "doing a lot of highway driving".  The faster the speed of travel, the greater the impact of aerodynamic drag.  In other words, the answer to your "should I be worried" is a resounding no.  The recommendation is to become familiar with the efficiency measure of electric vehicles.  In your case, you have probably been averaging around 18.8 kWh/100km (3.3 mi/kWh).  With a usable battery-capacity of 65 kWh.  An observed efficiency of 3.3 would deliver 214 miles.

9-10-2023

Started Shopping.  I was excited about seeing a post that opened with: "Hey everyone, currently driving a Rav4 Prime, but looking to potentially trade in for the bZ4X.  I have only really been toying with this idea today..."  This is how I responded to that:  A friend of mine with a RAV4 Prime shared a few observations about what made the ride in bZ4X nicer.  But if you are already enjoying daily EV driving, it's tough to justify.  And if you don't have level-2 at home (240-volt charging), it's not a good choice.  With level-2, you can go for days without needing to recharge again.  But there will be days when only having that 120-volt outlet could be a problem and most people don't have convenient DC fast-charging available.  So, same advice I give to everyone else.  If you won't have overnight access to level-2 charging, the choice to purchase a BEV isn't a good one.  Then I tell them to look for rebates available from their provider.  We got $500 for each of our level-2 installs connected to a meter setup for time-of-use discounts.

9-09-2023 Avoiding Answers.  That person providing the link about hate & efficiency, complained stating: "I guess watching the video is harder than just asking the questions".  Since I had already, my reply very quickly followed:  Not only did I watch the video, I also documented the observations...

  14.9 kWh/100km (4.2 mi/kWh) = Kia EV6 AWD GT-Line @ 89%
  16.7 kWh/100km (3.7 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 87%
  17.7 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Kia EV6 AWD GT-Line @ 68%
  16.3 kWh/100km (3.8 mi/kWh) = Skoda Enyaq Coupe RS @ 67%
  19.9 kWh/100km (3.9 mi/kWh) = Tesla Model Y Performance @ 65%
  17.5 kWh/100km (3.6 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 63%
  21.0 kWh/100km (3.0 mi/kWh) = Ford Mustang Mach-E GT @ 61%
  17.2 kWh/100km (3.6 mi/kWh) = Tesla Model Y Performance @ 39%
  20.6 kWh/100km (3.0 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 37%
  23.0 kWh/100km (2.7 mi/kWh) = Ford Mustang Mach-E GT @ 32%
  17.5 kWh/100km (3.6 mi/kWh) = Ford Mustang Mach-E GT @ 23%
  19.6 kWh/100km (3.2 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 22%
  23.0 kWh/100km (2.7 mi/kWh) = Ford Mustang Mach-E GT @ 11%
  17.7 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Kia EV6 AWD GT-Line @ 9%
  18.2 kWh/100km (3.4 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 7%
  17.6 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Skoda Enyaq Coupe RS @ 5%
  17.7 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Kia EV6 AWD GT-Line @ 5%
  17.6 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Skoda Enyaq Coupe RS @ 1%
  18.2 kWh/100km (3.4 mi/kWh) = Polestar P2 LR Dual Motor @ 1%
  17.5 kWh/100km (3.5 mi/kWh) = Tesla Model Y Performance @ 0%
  17.8 kWh/100km (3.4 mi/kWh) = Kia EV6 AWD GT-Line @ 1%

I was curious if anyone replying would attempt to provide constructive feedback.  Don't speak of hate across brands without doing something to address it.  Tell us something about those observations.

9-09-2023

Simple Question.  I followed the link provided and looked at the summary for the featured video.  It was yet another one of those videos where they drove each until hitting 0% displayed.  There was only testing detail for the 5 vehicles filmed, nothing related to efficiency... even though that was the state purpose for posting that content.  The person was troubled by so much hate across brands and that the topic of "efficiency" would be uniting.  Scrolling through the transcript, to my surprise, there was indeed some actual efficiency detail.  Observations as the drive took place were shared.  Would there be a summary provided though, something easy to refer to?  No, there was not.  The video forced you to watch and somehow remember each of the results.  There was no convenient way to share & compare.  So, I commented on that post providing the link:  Simple question. Did they include any actual energy consumption data?  Most reviews obsess with range, to the point where "efficiency" is portrayed as how far the vehicle can travel until needing to be recharged.  With a title of "Who Dies First?", the impression is this is just another enthusiast hype publish.  Focusing so much attention on long-distance travel is sign of misplaced priorities.  Isn't the point of EVs to reduce consumption?  Carrying the largest battery possible to achieve the greatest distance between charges is counter-productive.  That reduces efficiency.

9-09-2023

Not Wanting To See.  That Volt owner put on the rose-colored glasses, choosing to listen to what others told him rather than actually doing research.  BEV purity was the only solution.  No transition necessary.  No consequences for that choice.  All automakers must just abandon everything they learned from and built upon, starting fresh due to the urgency of climate change.  That begs the question of what the goal should be.  Having a PHEV that delivers electric-only driving for all ordinary travel isn't enough though.  Why?  For that matter, how we determine when criteria is fulfilled?  There's no definition of success.  Winning battles by any means possible is not how you win a war.  You strategize, determining priority and desired outcome.  Volt enthusiasts never wanted any part of that.  In fact, that's how Bolt came about.  Pushing for more and more EV and stigmatizing HV became self-defeating.  They became their own worse enemy and not it is happening again.  Ugh.  I replied to that on-going nonsense it the discussion stirred today with:  Turning a blind-eye to the EV technology delivered is the problem.  Don't overlook that heavy investment already well established, concealed within PHEV offerings and a few models of BEV so far.  Keyboard warriors believe more is better right away, even for long-term strategy.  Notice how Toyota is avoiding massive profit-cutting measures others are taking as they struggle to compete?  It's like sprinting early in a marathon.  Toyota is watching others make that mistake, as they get criticized for supposedly being behind.  It's the tortoise & hare race playing out right before our eyes and those complaining oblivious to what that story teaches.

9-09-2023

Desperate Efforts.  I was quite amused by the reply from that Volt owner.  The post was spin with backhanded compliments, an obvious effort to feed the "behind" narrative.  I fired back with:  The narrative requires readers to ignore some facts, like claiming "finally fixed that" even though it was 7 years ago and nothing was ever broken.  That, like references to Kodak, are desperate efforts to mislead.  Toyota has a solid EV propulsion system already, spread across several PHEV & BEV with plans to accelerate as part of the corporate shakeup scheduled to begin October 1.  Remember the new CEO stepping in?  Those changes will enable his vision of how to make the business highly competitive (sustainable with high-volume and low-margins) in the new market, something Kodak never attempted.  Kodak basically ignored digital.  Toyota will be offering a wide variety of plug-in vehicles.

9-09-2023

Quite Annoyed.  There was an article titled "Good New for Toyota".  Attacks began immediately.  One individual brought up the Kodak analogy, which makes no sense at all anymore.  I pointed out they have nothing in common; Toyota's diversity approach makes that obvious.  He replied back with a bunch of rhetorical questions, rather than actually answering.  It was clear he there just to belittle Toyota.  Sure enough, I got my confirmed when he gave praise to his beloved Volt.  Ugh.  My reply to that was pointing out how both generations of Prius Prime were more efficient in EV and HV modes.  That resulted in this: "All-electric range of Prius Prime is shorter.  Prius can't drive at high speeds on highway in all-electric mode.  More all-electric is higher efficiency."  That's the type of nonsense I had to deal with in the past... a mix of more is better combined with outright lies.  To that, I mansplained to him, hoping to use it as a teach-moment for others:  Efficiency is a measure of energy consumption.  Range is a measure of energy storage.  Don't get them mixed up like many reviewers do.  mi/kWh is the most useful depiction of efficiency, since it enables very easy math for recharging.  My EV averages 4.0 mi/kWh.  That means if I add 5 kWh the resulting range would be 20 miles.  In other words, any electric-only drive delivering higher mi/kWh will be more efficient.  Size of the battery doesn't matter.  Type of the plug-in vehicle doesn't matter.  As for the blatantly false claim about highway speeds, get a clue.  Prius Prime has delivered electric-only driving up to 135 km/h (84 mph) since way back in 2016.

9-07-2023

Battery Heater.  It's been a scramble to keep up, lots happening in the 4X world.  Yesterday was a big temperature drop.  Fall has arrived here in Minnesota.  So, I started monitoring battery-heater data.  This was today's run to get morning coffee.  It is automatically set & adjusted.  I was intrigued to see it drop when the outside temperature dropped.  I suspect Toyota worked extremely hard to avoid energy waste.  The battery only needs to be at room temperature to operate efficiency.  There is almost certainly an optimal temperature for the pack, a value I will be able to see with enough monitoring.  Anecdotal evidence eventually becomes true data to draw conclusions upon, once you've collected enough.  If I make an educated guess initially, that is a hypothesis.  That is indeed what I will do too.  I'm thinking Toyota will strive to keep the temperature in the mid-70's.  To minimize losses, I would expect the gauge for the heater to be changing on a very frequent basis.  Much like how the small motor/generator is used in the hybrid system, energy flow will be continuously adjusted.  That's something Toyota does exceptionally well.  To that end, efficiency will be traded for speed.  That would be exactly what DC fast-charging was so slow last winter.  Toyota's strategy would be to delay heating above mid-70's until you actually plug in.  Then, it crank up the heater.  Why do that before arrival at the station?  Heat not immediately used for faster charging is heat wasted.  Anywho, I will find out in the next few weeks.  We'll see overnight temperatures dip below freezing.

9-06-2023 That Niche.  I find comments like this intriguing: "Toyota is still only planning to produce 3 million EVs by 2030. Tesla and BYD together are almost at that level now - and at this rate, they will be producing 20 million a year by 2030."  For anyone who studied the automotive market over the past 2 decades, such a claim makes no sense.  Think about what led up to the collapse in 2007 and the recovery that followed.  Think about what happened during the pandemic and the struggle to recover.  Think about volume on that scale requires appeal to a very wide audience.  Keyboard warriors don't think about such things.  They prefer chest-pounding.  Ugh.  I replied to that nonsense with:

Fundamentals of business apply to everyone.  Tesla cannot just keep cranking out more 3 & Y expecting consumers to all want the same thing.  Diversity is essential.  That's why other automakers offer a wide variety of choices.  CyberTruck is a step in that direction, but it does nothing whatsoever for those simply looking for basic transport.  Tesla's absence from the entry-level market applies to the thought presented here about Toyota: "It makes me wonder if they might create their own Osborne effect."

Why bother with a Model 3 when you can get a Model 2 instead?  We watched that shift of interest happen already with S & X, when their much less expense siblings were rolled out. Imagine what even the prospect of a 2 could have on potential sales.

Toyota doesn't have that problem.  When demand for BEV finally breaks out beyond the reach it is limited to currently, appealing to ordinary consumers who are perfectly content with their ICE choices, Toyota will have a wide variety of PHEV available each with a hybrid counterpart.  It enables sales to continue, no Osborne.

Those spinning antithesis narratives for Toyota will naturally call that a bait & switch.  Problem with that is a PHEV delivering 40 miles of EV drive competes directly with BEV in terms of electric-only driving.  Toyota's next-gen PHEV is expected to deliver substantial EV range increase too.

All that will build upon ownership experiences shared by those who have purchased a BEV or PHEV from Toyota.  We are already noticing how initial bZ4X reviews came from those who didn't understand Toyota consumers or what Toyota had delivered for them.  When a loyal customer is in need of a replacement vehicle, they purchase what's available.  Those drawn to Tesla were seeking opportunity, which is quite different. It's a win for early-adopters, but that niche won't address the market Toyota excels within.

 

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