Personal Log  #1248

November 12, 2023  -  November 16, 2023

Last Updated:  Sun. 4/21/2024

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11-16-2023

Brainless Insults.  There are some who's hate runs so deep, they post brainless insults like this: "You know crap when you see it.  I see crap."  That reminds me to that giant discussion over 2 decades ago, asking if Prius was up to the chore.  It went on for 2 years before the moderators finally brought it down.  No matter what the haters posted, it didn't work.  Prius was proven capable.  Someday, I'll read through those blogs I wrote capturing highlights of those senseless arguments.  What stands out in my memory was the "Die! Prius Die!" post.  Some don't deal with change well.  Fast forwarding a decade, I recall the same kind of sentiment coming from Volt enthusiasts.  They absolutely hated Prius and feared the potential it possessed.  When what it had to offer spilled over into Camry, there was much denial.  They tried to ignore it.  Then came RAV4 hybrid.  It was the first threat they took seriously... since there was very real opportunity for a model with a plug.  When that happened, their efforts died.  How ironic.  No more crap, especially knowing the upcoming production end for Volt would not have a successor.  GM would abandon their efforts.  Now, we are seeing that potential play out.  Toyota's entire passenger fleet is becoming hybrid and new plug-in model are being introduced.  There are new haters though, completely unaware of the past.  I like to point it out to them, like in reply to that crap comment:  That assessment of Prius is what enabled Toyota to spread hybrid tech across their fleet, then resulted in PHEV to do the same.

11-16-2023

FUD Campaign.  You know trouble is brewing when this gets published: "Volkswagen is falling behind competitors in the cheap EV race."  I was surprised how quickly comments focused on Toyota: "...thus had to launch a new FUD campaign to slow down others while they try to catch up."  Toyota is the antithesis everyone created.  I keep calling them out on that:  Sounds like a fanboy trying to divert attention away from a market others have evading.  This is another irony Toyota won't get acknowledged for having pointed out would happen years ago... those supporting EVs will have to face the reality of great performance & reliability from an entry-level priced vehicle, which will make it directly competitive with high-profit vehicles.  We can now easily see how automakers are doing everything they can to kick the can down the road.  That is why so many get angry with me for pointing out the reality of competition being on the showroom floor, not other automakers.  Enthusiasts continue to be their own worst enemy by not wanting to face that prospect of cannibalized sales... even worse is the possibility of Osborne Effect.  Knowing that Toyota has a plan to address that makes the situation for fanboys unbearable... PHEV offering. Toyota already had Prius & RAV4 hybrids with a plug and we now see Crown & C-HR preparing to deliver the same.  These cheap (sub-$22K) BEV offerings will be awesome daily drivers.  But if you routinely need greater range or have unreliable/missing infrastructure to deal with, a PHEV compliments consumer choice well.  In short, the real FUD campaign is coming from those still not wanting to face reality.

11-16-2023

Unified Battery Cell.  This was an interesting mention in an article featuring VW's pursuit of an entry-level BEV: "VW says it's working on a unified battery cell that will cut costs in half, enabling it to bring cheaper cars to market."  That obviously caught my interest.  I jumped into the commenting with:  Ironically, many here have been hammering on Toyota, claiming they are desperately behind and scrambling to catch up.  That was always an enthusiast assessment, one based on their own niche priorities rather than focus on mainstream need.  Reality is, Toyota has already delivered their first-gen version of a "unified" battery cell.  They called their design "bi-polar" and rolled it out to some hybrids.  That initial real-world validation was for NiMH chemistry.  Their gen-2 design will focus on Lithium chemistry, which they are specifically targeting for initial use in bZ4X as a mid-cycle update.  Expectations are a 40% cost reduction.  This industry move makes sense.  Even though Tesla has struggled with 4680, improvements to battery packaging that leverage well-proven chemistries is a step forward if they deliver significantly lower price.

11-15-2023

Rebranding Updates.  I didn't realize Skoda would be rebranding the platform.  They apparently have a tie into Subaru.  That must be a group in Europe.  Anywho, I new owner in Finland just bought one and was baffled by the absence of battery preheating.  He posted: "I cannot fathom why it isn't already available."  I liked seeing that.  It was an awareness of what others have been providing.  Those other automakers haven't been all that fast though... VW.  But then again, holding Toyota to a higher standard is a common theme.  An interesting reply to that comment came about from a Skoda administrator: "The pre-heating function will be available for cars with software version 4.0 but we are working on adding this feature to cars with software version 3.x.  Thank you for understanding and have a nice day."  That certainly was interesting.  It was the first mention I have stumbled across related to backward compatibility.  Getting that upgrade is a reasonable expectation, as it getting it relatively soon.  We'll see.  This is how I replied to that original post:  The topic of when pre-conditioning would be available was always one that peaked my interest.  Living in Minnesota and routinely getting to chat with ID.4 owners (we have a local EV group that has regular in-person meetings), I own a bZ4X waiting for the same thing.  The software upgrade I'm waiting for just started rollout in Japan.  I expect Norway will follow shortly.  Since it's getting cold here too, being next would be nice.  I can see battery-heating take place when plugging into DC, but not getting it as a draw-from-battery while in-route option is a test of patience.

11-14-2023

How & What.  I think my effort to stir constructive exchange worked.  Calling out attempts to create an antithesis resulted in a turn to how & what questions.  I had answers, realistic ones.  It's an uncomfortable topic though.  Toyota is supposed to be a competitor of VW.  Finding out they will have a friendly rivalry isn't what many had been hoping for.  Their expectation was one of domination.  Dieselgate forced VW into a position of embracing EVs and that struggle to actually do so was assumed an advantage.  No other legacy automaker could catch up... based on the assumption that the same path would be taken to the same goal.  Reality is that's not how this type of race works.  When a narrative falls apart, members of the group you thought were open-minded turn.  That discussion became a mix of knowledge exchange along with attacks.  The moderator clearly felt uncomfortable.  The thread suddenly vanished.  I moved on to posting elsewhere in the group.  Looking back, I wish I would have saved a copy of the images posted.  They were snippets of a supposed article, but no context, no title, no link.  The source was completely unknown.  I could imagine the moderator being unwilling to host something which had become fake news.  Watch for clues.  There were too many unknowns to support such wild & confused claims.

11-14-2023

Hope & Hype.  Another opportunity within that exchange on the ID.4 group to be constructive: "Similar reports are distributed all the time.  It's going to be years before they are available in scale if at all."  Phew!  I was getting worried.  Many had been treating it as eminent.  It's that lack of patience.  Fortunately, some in this group have that mindset for waiting.  After all, their favored automaker is VW.  There's a decent amount of forward-thinking from them with realistic goals... quite a contrast to GM or Tesla.  Anywho, I posted more with:  It's what doesn't get reported that should be of interest.  Online media thrives on hope & hype.  When something rolls out quietly & successfully, it basically gets ignored.  A great example of that is Toyota's bi-polar cell design.  That has proven such a success for NiMH chemistry that the same approach will be applied to Lithium.  It's a big part of how the upcoming bZ4X upgrade will be achieved... a piece of misinformation in the article of discussion.  It has nothing to do with solid-state.  It will be that bi-polar enhancement... which will ultimately contribute to the expected 20% range increase and 40% cell cost decrease.

11-14-2023

Defensive.  It didn't go well.  There was push after push of outdated information.  No one there wanted to acknowledge progress since.  No one wanted to reflect upon VW's actions either.  I could see it falling apart soon.  Either I would get banned or the discussion thread would be removed.  Being patient & polite with each of the posts makes for a friendly exchange.  Even with that, undesired feedback is unwelcome.  You don't want confirmation of the original post actually being propaganda that many of the members had fallen for.  Oops!  So the best way to play out the situation is to allow others to shoot the messenger.  The personal attacks began: "John just owns bz4x and feels the need to defend it at all costs."  It was that "at all costs" which provided confirmation of critical thinking avoidance.  He thought it was best to divert attention rather than recognize the points being made.  I tend to reply to such nonsense with a question, as I did in this case:  Correcting an article that is clearly spreading false information is what?  No.  I meet with ID.4 owners on a regular basis through our local EV owners group and know misleading articles are a problem that should be addressed... even if it makes you appear defensive.

11-13-2023

Meanwhile.  It fell apart quickly.  References to long outdated rhetoric emerged.  Look backward, not forward.  Ugh.  This was unfortunate: "Meanwhile, Toyota's advertising is basically BEVs are bad, you should go with a PHEV."  I remember that back in 2017, for the UK market.  Think about how much slower DC fast-charging was back then.  Think about the cost of batteries at that point.  Think about how challenged infrastructure was.  From me, I wanted the same thing again.  What was the source.  We know how much statements get lost in translation.  We also know how enthusiasts hear what they want.  Sadly, we know how some are willing to outright lie.  Finding out where the supposed bias originated is key to figuring out what "bad" actually means.  Think about what our market currently faces.  BEV are freakishly expensive compared to a Corolla hybrid... which starts at $23,300.  Delivering 53 mpg city and 46 mpg highway, it's a tough sell getting a showroom shopper to consider a BEV instead.  That's where the PHEV comes into play.  That's an easy sale and it compliments a household that already owns a BEV really well.  With all that in mind, I continued the discussion:  Don't believe hearsay.  Toyota has stated the opposite.  In fact, there have been several updates about production of batteries for bZ5X coming from the new facility being built in Tennessee and production of that new bigger bZ4X sibling to be built in Kentucky.

11-13-2023

Catch Up.  I didn't allow time for any type of reply.  I immediately followed up on my own catch up comment by reversing perspective.  What the heck is VW going to sell if the customer will not be purchasing an EV?  There was an explosive reaction from enthusiasts when Toyota pointed out how cells across the fleet in the form of hybrids and plug-in hybrids did far more to reduce carbon emissions than just selling EV and ICE.  Enthusiasts don't like that logic.  Enthusiasts fight critical thinking.  Enthusiasts deny inconvenient truths.  I get tired of that nonsense from them.  This was a different audience though, not your usual chest-pounding advocates.  They are open-minded and willing to listen.  I was about to test that character with:  btw, that comment begs the question of what VW will be selling as long as they can.  To me, the strategy appears to be rolling our a wide variety of BEV choices for people... which is awesome... but continuing with ICE production in the meantime.  At least with Toyota hybrids, you get a significant reduction of gas consumption combined with smog & carbon emission reduction.  Keep in mind, tomorrow Toyota will announce the end of Camry as an ICE.  Starting with the 2024, it will only be available as a hybrid.

11-13-2023

Far Behind.  On the group dedicated to ID.4 discussion, someone posted 2 image captures of an article supposedly about what Toyota plans to deliver.  It was a confusing mix of information.  What I found most interesting was comments about the 2024 model of bZ4X supposedly using a solid-state battery to deliver 745 miles of range.  The source was obviously fodder for trolls.  I asked where that had come from.  The original poster never answered.  Since I so frequently interact with those on the group, I figured it was safe to correct some of the misinformation.  But before embarking on that risky move, I decided to get some dialog exchanged by responding to this: "Toyota is far behind in the EV game.  They want to keep selling their hybrids, as long as they can.  And they release such news to buy them some time and persuade people who are on the edge of buying a BEV, to buy their plugin hybrids."  No one pushing the "behind" narrative ever wants to qualify their claim.  They just portray an impression of struggle, then move on. At best, they have actually seen a bZ4X in person.  I suspect most comments are nothing but conjecture. So, I started with this: That seems reasonable until you drive their EV.  It's a refined ride delivering competitive efficiency.  So what if range is short now?  The actual update planned for bZ4X is targeted to deliver a 20% increase in range at a 40% reduction of battery cost.  That pretty much catches Toyota up.

11-13-2023

Where Is LFP Data?  It's nice getting asked that and well overdue.  I don't have an answer for that though.  This is the best I could contribute to the discussion:  I wish I knew.  Look to China for that. Before the patent expired, I remember reading publication reviews and owner comments about hardware & software updates needed to deal with the different charge & discharge behavior of the chemistry.  Based on that, it was a given we'd get it for our market as soon as production outside of China could begin.  It seemed such an obvious choice for entry-level vehicles, that data would be easy to come by.  Who knew that the market for entry-level vehicles would become such a struggle.  Then when Tesla started using LFP, the wishy-washy response made it clear there would be NMC, NCA, and new varieties (like high-cobalt) that will confuse the market for years to come.  Notice how even 4680 data is difficult to find?  Those making purchase decisions have that data.  Those pushing the chemistry (like BYD and CATL) do too.  We're stuck with anecdotal observations.  The hope is when others, like when Panasonic ramps up, we'll get detail... since it's a moving target, as energy-density for LFP continues to improve usage will as well.  Notice how the portable-storage market has embraced LFP cells.

11-13-2023

Lots Of Patience.  It is always difficult having to wait, especially for the unknown.  That's an expectation... or should be... when purchasing a plug-in vehicle.  There is a possibility of an update.  The idea of a post-purchase fix or enhancement isn't out of the ordinary.  Expecting it in a reasonable time is though.  VW owners know this well.  Toyota tends to be far more responsive.  We'll see.  For now, it's questions about the cold-temperature upgrade: "Any idea if/when another software update might come to the u.s.?"  These were my thoughts I posted on the topic:  It's a fluid situation, taking the prior update into account and based on feedback from usage in Japan.  Considering what else they have on their plate helps too.  Tomorrow, Toyota will be revealing the next-gen Camry.  It will mark the end of the gas-only model, becoming hybrid-only with a choice of AWD.  Toyota will also be revealing a PHEV model of Crown, for our market.  For Europe, Toyota is also about to debut the next-gen C-HR with choice of a PHEV model.  Having the update prior to winter setting in would be nice.  December is when they have lots of attention to leverage too.  Like it has always been for Toyota rollouts, lots of patience is required.

11-12-2023

Route Planning.  Someone asked how to best travel from Richmond, Virginia to Raleigh, North Carolina.  First thing I did was look up Tesla Superchargers with MagicDock.  There wasn't anything in the region.  The fact that we have 2 is quite unusual.  That's likely due to one of the executives of Tesla living nearby.  The state of Minnesota is starting to ramp up DC fast-charger infrastructure projects, even before the NEVI funded efforts come into play.  That is actual competition, not just establishing travel corridors.  In fact, between the 2 MagicDock stations is a brand new gas station along the highway that will feature CCS chargers.  (Specifically, they will be ABB units owned by Circle K for the Holiday Station stores here.)  That location will be great for my use.  It is at the very location where I branch northward for vacations and western to visit my in-laws.  It is quite a departure from prospects only a year ago.  Anywho, I played with ABRP (the phone app called "A Better Route Planner") for a bit to see what was realistic.  It estimated efficiency would be 2.94 mi/kWh and would consume a total of 56.6 kWh.  The overall trip plan was for 159 miles of travel taking 2 hours 51 minutes.  It instructed me to drive for 1 hour 44 minutes (113 miles).  Starting at 90% charge, I would arrive at the recommended charging location with 28% charge remaining.  The planner estimated a stop of only 7 minutes to bump the charge up to 40%.  That was due to me specifying a desired arrival charge of 20%, following the remaining 54 minutes (45 miles) of travel.  It's quite handy seeing parameters available for adjustment.  You can specify frequency & duration of stops.  You can also adjust those choices afterward. like if you find a preferred location to stop... which is common when you look at another app (like "PlugShare") and discover a nice amenity nearly.  For example, the MagicDock that I have used isn't by any fast-food location.  That new gas station has a new McDonald's across the street.  Anywho, you can make changes on-the-fly and with an ODB-II reader, supply live-data for better estimations.  It is very convenient.  I made a screen-print of the route planning I had generated, then shared that in the Facebook group.

 

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