John's Stuff - Personal Log 1305

January 4, 2025 - January 14, 2025

Last Updated: Weds. 6/25/2025

1-14-2025
Crisis, next purchase. I especially liked this particular comment: "Toyota is ceding market share to the likes of Tesla and BYD yesterday, today and tomorrow. How likely is it that former Toyota customers will return to the brand for their next purchase?" Posts of that nature actually show critical thinking. Gasp! The very idea of retention was unheard of back with Volt, even Bolt. But now that we are seeing Tesla loyalty fall apart, some attention to "Who?" is finally happening. The question itself addresses more than just immediate sale results too. The mindset of short-term telling a story of what to expect was horrible. Remember just last year how many were still proclaiming the prediction of Tesla selling 20 million vehicles annually by 2030 as gospel, as if it was already written in stone to happen? That never made any sense. Market diversity should make that obvious. Though without recognition of audience, that's impossible to understand. Anywho, I again had to point out the pattern I recognize all too well: Study history. That's an effective means of getting beyond the growth plateau, when the market struggles as it hits new barriers due to the audience change. It's advanced economics, but shouldn't be too difficult to recognize.

1-14-2025 Crisis, expectations. With most situations, it comes down to setting realistic expectations. Not everyone online is obsessed with range & speed. In fact, that is very much just an American problem. Other markets haven't stigmatized the word compromise. They see it as seeking balance. Anywho, the voice of reason isn't silent. This was nice to read about the supposed Toyota crisis: "It's a decent normal car, you can road trip it with 40-50min stops every 2-3 hours driving, carries 4 people comfortably and as an everyday car, handles it all fine with that range and charging speed. Think we have talked ourselves into the rut of expecting each new EV to meet ever stricter standards and performance when for the average driver, they just need an average EV." More discussion like that would be wonderful. I added:

Long road trips are rare. It's the equivalent of saying a vehicle must be capable of towing. People sight it as a purchase requirement, but don't often actually use the ability.

Weekend warrior trips work just fine. Travel from the southern Twin Cities to the Northern Minnesota (the Brainerd area) is routine for me with my AWD bZ4X. Along that route, 9 new DCFC locations opened last year and there are more on the way this year. That means just a single random stop on way or an extended level-1 charge at my destination. There's actually a bar with really good burgers and level-2 chargers available too.

Needless to say, I find so much emphasis on more range being a necessity just noise from those who haven't really addressed range-anxiety. The weight, size and efficiency penalty of having a larger battery means they aren't taking the effort to reach those who don't need a "do everything" vehicle seriously. Neglect of an entry-level market is saddening.
Think about how battery chemistry will improve. Combine that with increased DCFC locations, what's the point of carrying around so much battery capacity?

1-14-2025 Crisis, pricing. And so it begins. It was common knowledge that bZ4X would be expensive. Toyota wouldn't building it in high volume and it was using a modified platform. It simply made no sense to not leverage existing production. Just like with Prius, use the first-generation to learn about how optimization should be targeted. Learn what the market really wants rather than guessing. That's a good long-term strategy. Impatient enthusiasts hate that approach. So, they based their arguments on pricing... it would be a great vehicle if it was less expensive. Of course, now that price has dropped, there is a sense of panic... hence an article claiming Toyota is now in a crisis. Not everyone is scrambling to come up with a way to feed that sentiment though: "Yah because Toyota gutted pricing, duh." Sales being better than expected was a good way to end the year, a good counter to the narrative. I chimed in with:

Finding a means of reducing production-cost, to result in a lower price is the point of any rollout.

Remember the end of Prius gen-1, when Toyota was able to make it profitable? Too many here are obsessed with the belief that high-volume sales is essential for the first-generation model. Why? It makes no sense to push a product that could potentially trigger an Osborne Effect to be a loss-leader. Setting the stage for a high-volume later makes sense though. Learn what you can from a limited gen-1 rollout to enable a strong-selling gen-2. In the meantime, leverage that gen-1 for training those employed at dealers.
We can see that Toyota is preparing to take on more plug-in sales. Last week, they revealed a stripped down version of Prius Prime. That dropped the price by 700,000 yen (about $4,450).

1-13-2025 Crisis, criticisms. I wonder where this comment will take us: "The "bZ4X crisis" refers to the same criticisms U.S. and European EV shoppers have of Toyota's primary electric offering." Toyota is getting attention again. Some of that comes from the need for a distraction. Both legacy automakers and Tesla are struggling. Signs of a market plateau are difficult to avoid at this point. Transition from early-adopter to mainstream was supposed to be painless. Momentum would pick up and subsidies phaseout out without impact to sales. Saturation wasn't expected. Resulting price cuts are a clear sign of unexpected slowdown. Having to reduction production is confirmation. Toyota possibly having found a way to lower their expenses to retain profit is a very real worry now. So, those upset work to undermine. Ugh. Anywho, that's how the "crisis" article came about. I replied to that comment about criticisms with:

Know your audience.

That criticism came from early-adopters who expect every automaker to sell a loss-leader. Toyota knows how little that audience has in common with mainstream priorities. That's why greater range wasn't planned until gen-2... when lower cost chemistry & packaging could be taken advantage of. Clearly, it wouldn't be until then that DCFC was built up anyway... a major travel deterrent for mainstream consumers. So, the timing & approach worked fine for long-term goals.

The "crisis" aspect of it comes from how loss-leader sales didn't have the intended outcome. We see how VW & Ford are struggling with over-production and how GM was forced to abandon Ultium. At the same time, we're seeing Tesla losing ground to BYD.
It comes down to the necessity of ignoring current market noise to remain focused on what should be delivered for 2026. This year will end up being a re-evaluate for every automaker.

1-12-2025 Barriers. Turns out, he was quite receptive to my reply to his suggestion. Phew! You never really know how someone will take pushback to advice. In this case, it might have been some of the other comments I made within that some discussion to others. This from me is likely what helped: If you have the need for an HD [heavy duty] vehicle, that's fine. Most people don't though. So, we should make sure they are aware of the difference. We don't want to create unnecessary cost barriers to EV adoption. It's really easy to unintentionally intimidate.

1-12-2025
100 Amps. That was the suggestion to someone on the Minnesota EV Owners group asking about what to get for their planned BEV purchase. I was both surprised & annoyed that such a reply would be posted, especially without explanation or context. That's far to vague. It's also not only a waste of money, it could also be a problem for "future proofing". People want their household investment to remain worthwhile over time. Installing something with limitations not foreseen is easy when you don't consider capacity. How will a second vehicle be served by having just a single massive charger available? Most enthusiasts don't consider that... making it a very touchy subject to address. It could make them angered or become a source of embarrassment. So when I reply, I take that emotional reaction potential into consideration. Hopefully, I did well with that today by asking: 100 amps is gross overkill. Any recommendation to a multi-vehicle home should be to consider multiple lines. Setting up two 50-amp (sustained 40-amp draw) makes far more sense. Drawing 32 amps for 8 hours will provide roughly 60 kWh. At 3.0 mi/kWh, that's 180 miles overnight. Why sacrifice the option of second EVSE for such a rare need?

1-12-2025
Video: Quick tutorial on ABRP. Need to find a DC fast-charger? ARBP is a useful app available for helping you navigate to it. This is a simple how-to video showing that. I drive my bZ4X from the city out to a charging location along the highway... quick tutorial on ABRP (A Better Routeplanner)

1-11-2025
Stepping Forward. History, some never learn from it. We had yet another "vastly superior" attack today. Those original clueless individuals who become significant troublemakers, feeding rhetoric that became a narrative are long gone. New troublemakers emerge from not being aware of the history. Consequently, they repeat the same mistakes. Ugh. In this case, it is the assumption of what is necessary for a gen-1 rollout to be considered successful. Remember the problem with Volt? Enthusiasts couldn't agree upon what measures represented progress. That's how they ended up obsessing with the engineering aspects of the technology. Those easily quantifiable values are something to celebrate, but don't actually indicate change was achieved. They hated that. In fact, their resentment from me constantly reminding them that those achievements didn't alter the status quo was considered an attack on them personally. That history portrays me as trolling them, despite the undeniable vindication of their priority claims having failed to invoke change. No need for "I told you so" replies. In the end, they saw their mistake. Now, that's repeating with a new audience. Ugh. Oh well, it's not like I'm not making an effort to convey what the past can teach us about how the market steps forward: You're missing the point. Gen-1 was never intended to be high-volume or competitive with loss-leader sales. The point was to use it to see what the market really needs. That's the same approach used with Prius. People seem to overlook the repeat of that history. Watch how gen-2 follows the pattern.

1-09-2025
Impatience. The expectation from enthusiasts was that Toyota would come out of the gate so strong, the race would be over immediately. In other words, their reflection of history was that Toyota had instant success with hybrids. They don't want to acknowledge how much of a backlash there was, no misconceptions or intimidation either. It's absurd, but all too common of how people "remember" the past. That distortion of reality is what contributes to the belief that mistakes won't happen again. They sincerely believe the situation is different now. Being blind to what matter is a fatal flaw, a big reason why I take on the troublemakers. Their impatience is the result of now recognizing the true situation. That's how the Kodak analogy lives on and will probably never go away. Today, I responded to that nonsense with:

Analogies to Kodak misrepresent the situation, portraying efforts as if none are of any value going forward. Reality is quite the opposite.

Toyota has been producing motors, controllers, inverters, heat-pumps, batteries... all components and related software that can be used across the fleet now & later.

Reality if the situation is that enthusiasts are impatient. They focus on breaking barriers and fail to address mainstream challenges, hence a perspective of doom & gloom. Ordinary showroom shoppers naturally allow for transition issues, with a perspective of wait & see.
The catch is, we've seen this history play out already. Those who attempt the Kodak analogy are refusing to acknowledge that. Toyota operates on a "continuous improvement" approach, to the dismay of enthusiasts who expect "everything, everywhere, all at once".

1-08-2025
Who? His rant started with this: "Hybrids are how you delay the transition, and that's what Toyota has been doing." And finally concluded with: "Toyota is dead last on our list, and we see no indication that they might move up." It was a typical post from an enthusiast, a person who couldn't care less about offerings for ordinary consumers. In their mind, vehicles produced for the masses don't matter. No transition is necessary. They sincerely believe the jump directly from ICE to BEV is realistic. That's so out of touch with reality, I am left perplexed by how often such sentiment is shared. Their mantra is leadership comes from pushing extremes, no resources necessary to assist mainstream shoppers or to help dealers. That's why I often respond to their rhetoric with a question: Who's your audience? In Norway specifically, bZ4X is a top-seller. In Europe, the new smaller EV upcoming from Toyota was just revealed. In the United States, mainstream consumers are still out of reach due to... NEVI delays... NACS delays... and our political turmoil.

1-07-2025 2025 Prius Pricing. This information on how much the newest model of Prius will be priced was timely:

$29,445 (AWD $30,845) = Prius LE
$32,890 (AWD $34,290) = Prius XLE
$33,590 (AWD $34,990) = Prius Nightshade
$36,460 (AWD $37,860) = Prius Limited

1-05-2025
Pricing. There was indeed something useful that came from the discussion of affordability: "If auto companies were half interested in transitioning the fleet to EV then they would price the PHEV versions MUCH closer to the HEV version. KIA Niro $27,000. Kia Niro PHEV $35,000. Price for Li battery is about $100/KWH. So, 15kWh is $1,500. That $7,000 for a $1,500 battery is the definition of greed." I wonder this will take the discussion: Some of it is the market itself; all of those models come very well loaded. Toyota just recently addressed that in Japan by offering a stripped down version of Prius Prime. It dropped the price by 700,000 yen (about $4,450). Keep in mind, there's a very real possibility of triggering the Osborne Effect. That's likely why we see Toyota quietly setting up battery production in North Carolina. They'll be producing hybrids in Tennessee & Kentucky capable of taking advantage of that supply. It simply doesn't make sense lowering price until then. There's the upcoming political turmoil here to deal with too. Notice how other legacy automakers don't actually have any type of transition plan. They declared an empty "all in" pledge, but never provided any detail how they would achieve that. It was way overlying optimistic thinking they could go straight from ICE to BEV.

1-05-2025
Video: ABRP Live Data. Did you know that ABRP (A Better Route Planner) can do more than just provide mapping information to DC fast-chargers? Without having to provide a destination, you can get live data while you drive. This video is a sample of that from my commute to work on a cold winter morning... Toyota bZ4X - ABRP Live Data

1-04-2025
Affordable Batteries. This distortion was meant to alter the narrative: "50 miles was cool when batteries cost $225/kwh. Now they cost $60/kwh, no longer good enough unless it is much lighter..." I'm not sure where, if anywhere, that is actually true. We are approaching $80/kWh, but the choice of sighting 50 miles and $225/kWh was quite arbitrary. That's always a warning sign. Why were those particular numbers picked as a reference? Whatever the case, at least it is enough to get some critical thinking to happen. Perhaps I'll get something useful in reply to this: Those batteries are coming. We'll be seeing better chemistries. We'll also be setting better packaging. Toyota's success with bi-polar cells using NiMH will carried over to a design using Li-Ion. The result is a smaller, lighter, less expensive cell... great for squeezing more miles into a hybrid to enable cost-effective plugging in.

1-04-2025 Proven Approach. This seemed a sincere comment worthy of the time to reply to: "It was overpriced from the start. Compare it to 30k EVs and it's fine." That's anecdotal, of course. But absence of critical thought is not an indicator of willingness to learn from history. So, I presented some:

That's only if you support the narrative this article feeds: "Toyota bZ4X sales lagged behind US EV rivals in 2024." It portrays the goal as an effort to be a sales leader.

Reality is, Toyota's gen-1 rollouts are intentionally limited. That first release of a technology is to acquire knowledge & experience to make gen-2 an offering with widespread appeal with sustainable profit. That approach is very easy to verify. Just look at the history with gen-1 Prius and gen-1 Prius PHEV.

What advantage is there to flooding the market with loss-leader sales? That hasn't gone well other legacy automakers. Reminder yourself of how VW, GM and Ford all struggled. How did they benefit?
Look at it another way. If the vehicle is overpriced, it will deter those who are indifferent. That's not the kind of audience you want to collect feedback from.

1-14-2025	Crisis, next purchase. I especially liked this particular comment: "Toyota is ceding market share to the likes of Tesla and BYD yesterday, today and tomorrow. How likely is it that former Toyota customers will return to the brand for their next purchase?" Posts of that nature actually show critical thinking. Gasp! The very idea of retention was unheard of back with Volt, even Bolt. But now that we are seeing Tesla loyalty fall apart, some attention to "Who?" is finally happening. The question itself addresses more than just immediate sale results too. The mindset of short-term telling a story of what to expect was horrible. Remember just last year how many were still proclaiming the prediction of Tesla selling 20 million vehicles annually by 2030 as gospel, as if it was already written in stone to happen? That never made any sense. Market diversity should make that obvious. Though without recognition of audience, that's impossible to understand. Anywho, I again had to point out the pattern I recognize all too well: Study history. That's an effective means of getting beyond the growth plateau, when the market struggles as it hits new barriers due to the audience change. It's advanced economics, but shouldn't be too difficult to recognize.
1-14-2025	Crisis, expectations. With most situations, it comes down to setting realistic expectations. Not everyone online is obsessed with range & speed. In fact, that is very much just an American problem. Other markets haven't stigmatized the word compromise. They see it as seeking balance. Anywho, the voice of reason isn't silent. This was nice to read about the supposed Toyota crisis: "It's a decent normal car, you can road trip it with 40-50min stops every 2-3 hours driving, carries 4 people comfortably and as an everyday car, handles it all fine with that range and charging speed. Think we have talked ourselves into the rut of expecting each new EV to meet ever stricter standards and performance when for the average driver, they just need an average EV." More discussion like that would be wonderful. I added: Long road trips are rare. It's the equivalent of saying a vehicle must be capable of towing. People sight it as a purchase requirement, but don't often actually use the ability. Weekend warrior trips work just fine. Travel from the southern Twin Cities to the Northern Minnesota (the Brainerd area) is routine for me with my AWD bZ4X. Along that route, 9 new DCFC locations opened last year and there are more on the way this year. That means just a single random stop on way or an extended level-1 charge at my destination. There's actually a bar with really good burgers and level-2 chargers available too. Needless to say, I find so much emphasis on more range being a necessity just noise from those who haven't really addressed range-anxiety. The weight, size and efficiency penalty of having a larger battery means they aren't taking the effort to reach those who don't need a "do everything" vehicle seriously. Neglect of an entry-level market is saddening. Think about how battery chemistry will improve. Combine that with increased DCFC locations, what's the point of carrying around so much battery capacity?
1-14-2025	Crisis, pricing. And so it begins. It was common knowledge that bZ4X would be expensive. Toyota wouldn't building it in high volume and it was using a modified platform. It simply made no sense to not leverage existing production. Just like with Prius, use the first-generation to learn about how optimization should be targeted. Learn what the market really wants rather than guessing. That's a good long-term strategy. Impatient enthusiasts hate that approach. So, they based their arguments on pricing... it would be a great vehicle if it was less expensive. Of course, now that price has dropped, there is a sense of panic... hence an article claiming Toyota is now in a crisis. Not everyone is scrambling to come up with a way to feed that sentiment though: "Yah because Toyota gutted pricing, duh." Sales being better than expected was a good way to end the year, a good counter to the narrative. I chimed in with: Finding a means of reducing production-cost, to result in a lower price is the point of any rollout. Remember the end of Prius gen-1, when Toyota was able to make it profitable? Too many here are obsessed with the belief that high-volume sales is essential for the first-generation model. Why? It makes no sense to push a product that could potentially trigger an Osborne Effect to be a loss-leader. Setting the stage for a high-volume later makes sense though. Learn what you can from a limited gen-1 rollout to enable a strong-selling gen-2. In the meantime, leverage that gen-1 for training those employed at dealers. We can see that Toyota is preparing to take on more plug-in sales. Last week, they revealed a stripped down version of Prius Prime. That dropped the price by 700,000 yen (about $4,450).
1-13-2025	Crisis, criticisms. I wonder where this comment will take us: "The "bZ4X crisis" refers to the same criticisms U.S. and European EV shoppers have of Toyota's primary electric offering." Toyota is getting attention again. Some of that comes from the need for a distraction. Both legacy automakers and Tesla are struggling. Signs of a market plateau are difficult to avoid at this point. Transition from early-adopter to mainstream was supposed to be painless. Momentum would pick up and subsidies phaseout out without impact to sales. Saturation wasn't expected. Resulting price cuts are a clear sign of unexpected slowdown. Having to reduction production is confirmation. Toyota possibly having found a way to lower their expenses to retain profit is a very real worry now. So, those upset work to undermine. Ugh. Anywho, that's how the "crisis" article came about. I replied to that comment about criticisms with: Know your audience. That criticism came from early-adopters who expect every automaker to sell a loss-leader. Toyota knows how little that audience has in common with mainstream priorities. That's why greater range wasn't planned until gen-2... when lower cost chemistry & packaging could be taken advantage of. Clearly, it wouldn't be until then that DCFC was built up anyway... a major travel deterrent for mainstream consumers. So, the timing & approach worked fine for long-term goals. The "crisis" aspect of it comes from how loss-leader sales didn't have the intended outcome. We see how VW & Ford are struggling with over-production and how GM was forced to abandon Ultium. At the same time, we're seeing Tesla losing ground to BYD. It comes down to the necessity of ignoring current market noise to remain focused on what should be delivered for 2026. This year will end up being a re-evaluate for every automaker.
1-12-2025	Barriers. Turns out, he was quite receptive to my reply to his suggestion. Phew! You never really know how someone will take pushback to advice. In this case, it might have been some of the other comments I made within that some discussion to others. This from me is likely what helped: If you have the need for an HD [heavy duty] vehicle, that's fine. Most people don't though. So, we should make sure they are aware of the difference. We don't want to create unnecessary cost barriers to EV adoption. It's really easy to unintentionally intimidate.
1-12-2025	100 Amps. That was the suggestion to someone on the Minnesota EV Owners group asking about what to get for their planned BEV purchase. I was both surprised & annoyed that such a reply would be posted, especially without explanation or context. That's far to vague. It's also not only a waste of money, it could also be a problem for "future proofing". People want their household investment to remain worthwhile over time. Installing something with limitations not foreseen is easy when you don't consider capacity. How will a second vehicle be served by having just a single massive charger available? Most enthusiasts don't consider that... making it a very touchy subject to address. It could make them angered or become a source of embarrassment. So when I reply, I take that emotional reaction potential into consideration. Hopefully, I did well with that today by asking: 100 amps is gross overkill. Any recommendation to a multi-vehicle home should be to consider multiple lines. Setting up two 50-amp (sustained 40-amp draw) makes far more sense. Drawing 32 amps for 8 hours will provide roughly 60 kWh. At 3.0 mi/kWh, that's 180 miles overnight. Why sacrifice the option of second EVSE for such a rare need?
1-12-2025	Video: Quick tutorial on ABRP. Need to find a DC fast-charger? ARBP is a useful app available for helping you navigate to it. This is a simple how-to video showing that. I drive my bZ4X from the city out to a charging location along the highway... quick tutorial on ABRP (A Better Routeplanner)
1-11-2025	Stepping Forward. History, some never learn from it. We had yet another "vastly superior" attack today. Those original clueless individuals who become significant troublemakers, feeding rhetoric that became a narrative are long gone. New troublemakers emerge from not being aware of the history. Consequently, they repeat the same mistakes. Ugh. In this case, it is the assumption of what is necessary for a gen-1 rollout to be considered successful. Remember the problem with Volt? Enthusiasts couldn't agree upon what measures represented progress. That's how they ended up obsessing with the engineering aspects of the technology. Those easily quantifiable values are something to celebrate, but don't actually indicate change was achieved. They hated that. In fact, their resentment from me constantly reminding them that those achievements didn't alter the status quo was considered an attack on them personally. That history portrays me as trolling them, despite the undeniable vindication of their priority claims having failed to invoke change. No need for "I told you so" replies. In the end, they saw their mistake. Now, that's repeating with a new audience. Ugh. Oh well, it's not like I'm not making an effort to convey what the past can teach us about how the market steps forward: You're missing the point. Gen-1 was never intended to be high-volume or competitive with loss-leader sales. The point was to use it to see what the market really needs. That's the same approach used with Prius. People seem to overlook the repeat of that history. Watch how gen-2 follows the pattern.
1-09-2025	Impatience. The expectation from enthusiasts was that Toyota would come out of the gate so strong, the race would be over immediately. In other words, their reflection of history was that Toyota had instant success with hybrids. They don't want to acknowledge how much of a backlash there was, no misconceptions or intimidation either. It's absurd, but all too common of how people "remember" the past. That distortion of reality is what contributes to the belief that mistakes won't happen again. They sincerely believe the situation is different now. Being blind to what matter is a fatal flaw, a big reason why I take on the troublemakers. Their impatience is the result of now recognizing the true situation. That's how the Kodak analogy lives on and will probably never go away. Today, I responded to that nonsense with: Analogies to Kodak misrepresent the situation, portraying efforts as if none are of any value going forward. Reality is quite the opposite. Toyota has been producing motors, controllers, inverters, heat-pumps, batteries... all components and related software that can be used across the fleet now & later. Reality if the situation is that enthusiasts are impatient. They focus on breaking barriers and fail to address mainstream challenges, hence a perspective of doom & gloom. Ordinary showroom shoppers naturally allow for transition issues, with a perspective of wait & see. The catch is, we've seen this history play out already. Those who attempt the Kodak analogy are refusing to acknowledge that. Toyota operates on a "continuous improvement" approach, to the dismay of enthusiasts who expect "everything, everywhere, all at once".
1-08-2025	Who? His rant started with this: "Hybrids are how you delay the transition, and that's what Toyota has been doing." And finally concluded with: "Toyota is dead last on our list, and we see no indication that they might move up." It was a typical post from an enthusiast, a person who couldn't care less about offerings for ordinary consumers. In their mind, vehicles produced for the masses don't matter. No transition is necessary. They sincerely believe the jump directly from ICE to BEV is realistic. That's so out of touch with reality, I am left perplexed by how often such sentiment is shared. Their mantra is leadership comes from pushing extremes, no resources necessary to assist mainstream shoppers or to help dealers. That's why I often respond to their rhetoric with a question: Who's your audience? In Norway specifically, bZ4X is a top-seller. In Europe, the new smaller EV upcoming from Toyota was just revealed. In the United States, mainstream consumers are still out of reach due to... NEVI delays... NACS delays... and our political turmoil.
1-07-2025	2025 Prius Pricing. This information on how much the newest model of Prius will be priced was timely: $29,445 (AWD $30,845) = Prius LE $32,890 (AWD $34,290) = Prius XLE $33,590 (AWD $34,990) = Prius Nightshade $36,460 (AWD $37,860) = Prius Limited
1-05-2025	Pricing. There was indeed something useful that came from the discussion of affordability: "If auto companies were half interested in transitioning the fleet to EV then they would price the PHEV versions MUCH closer to the HEV version. KIA Niro $27,000. Kia Niro PHEV $35,000. Price for Li battery is about $100/KWH. So, 15kWh is $1,500. That $7,000 for a $1,500 battery is the definition of greed." I wonder this will take the discussion: Some of it is the market itself; all of those models come very well loaded. Toyota just recently addressed that in Japan by offering a stripped down version of Prius Prime. It dropped the price by 700,000 yen (about $4,450). Keep in mind, there's a very real possibility of triggering the Osborne Effect. That's likely why we see Toyota quietly setting up battery production in North Carolina. They'll be producing hybrids in Tennessee & Kentucky capable of taking advantage of that supply. It simply doesn't make sense lowering price until then. There's the upcoming political turmoil here to deal with too. Notice how other legacy automakers don't actually have any type of transition plan. They declared an empty "all in" pledge, but never provided any detail how they would achieve that. It was way overlying optimistic thinking they could go straight from ICE to BEV.
1-05-2025	Video: ABRP Live Data. Did you know that ABRP (A Better Route Planner) can do more than just provide mapping information to DC fast-chargers? Without having to provide a destination, you can get live data while you drive. This video is a sample of that from my commute to work on a cold winter morning... Toyota bZ4X - ABRP Live Data
1-04-2025	Affordable Batteries. This distortion was meant to alter the narrative: "50 miles was cool when batteries cost $225/kwh. Now they cost $60/kwh, no longer good enough unless it is much lighter..." I'm not sure where, if anywhere, that is actually true. We are approaching $80/kWh, but the choice of sighting 50 miles and $225/kWh was quite arbitrary. That's always a warning sign. Why were those particular numbers picked as a reference? Whatever the case, at least it is enough to get some critical thinking to happen. Perhaps I'll get something useful in reply to this: Those batteries are coming. We'll be seeing better chemistries. We'll also be setting better packaging. Toyota's success with bi-polar cells using NiMH will carried over to a design using Li-Ion. The result is a smaller, lighter, less expensive cell... great for squeezing more miles into a hybrid to enable cost-effective plugging in.
1-04-2025	Proven Approach. This seemed a sincere comment worthy of the time to reply to: "It was overpriced from the start. Compare it to 30k EVs and it's fine." That's anecdotal, of course. But absence of critical thought is not an indicator of willingness to learn from history. So, I presented some: That's only if you support the narrative this article feeds: "Toyota bZ4X sales lagged behind US EV rivals in 2024." It portrays the goal as an effort to be a sales leader. Reality is, Toyota's gen-1 rollouts are intentionally limited. That first release of a technology is to acquire knowledge & experience to make gen-2 an offering with widespread appeal with sustainable profit. That approach is very easy to verify. Just look at the history with gen-1 Prius and gen-1 Prius PHEV. What advantage is there to flooding the market with loss-leader sales? That hasn't gone well other legacy automakers. Reminder yourself of how VW, GM and Ford all struggled. How did they benefit? Look at it another way. If the vehicle is overpriced, it will deter those who are indifferent. That's not the kind of audience you want to collect feedback from.