Personal Log  #1310

February 26, 2025  -  March 4, 2025

Last Updated:  Weds. 6/25/2025

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3-04-2025 PHEV, evidence.  Continued requests to explain what he meant by "goldmine" fell on dear ears.  He has clearly come to believe anything with a gas-engine will generate enough revenue for a dealer following the initial sale to sustain the business.  Such an absence of critical thinking explains why most BEV purists don't deem efficiency as an important purchase priority.  They see electricity as "vastly superior" without really ever understanding why.  This is what talking-points have become so dangerous.  Anywho, this is all I get: "I've provided all the evidence you need.  Do explain why I would be incorrect if you believe I am so.  Are you saying a hybrid doesn't use oil?  Coolant?  Doesn't have a water pump?  Injectors?  Head gasket?  Fuel filter?  Oil filter?  Do tell."  There's nothing of substance still.  I sent this back in return:

Basic upkeep... oil & filters... is not a goldmine, period.  That's a minor service any local shop could cover.  So, no guarantee of dealer business.

A well-designed PHEV won't ever need injectors or a head-gasket serviced or replaced.  Heck, sparkplugs will likely last the lifetime of the gas-engine too.  As for coolant & pump, BEV have those too.

With PHEV having already been around for over a decade, there's no data showing maintenance is anything beyond the basics.  They have proven very inexpensive to own.

In short, you haven't presented any numeric whatsoever to support the "goldmine" claim.

3-04-2025 PHEV, denial.  How much of this can a person take?  He keeps forcing a hybrid perspective, which isn't correct either: "As I have said way, way up in this long thread, a hybrid setup will still require oil changes at regular intervals and have coolant and transmission fluid.  It will still have an oil filter and a fuel filter.  It will still have a water pump, a starter motor, fuel injectors, piston rings and all the moving parts that make ICE engines expensive to maintain..."  Followed by personal insult, concluding with: "A goldmine for the company doing the maintenance, for sure."  He sincerely believes the  narrative pushed by others, the belief all vehicles with an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) is a source of continuous high expense to maintain.  That's patently false, which is why Toyota has thrived selling them.  Reputation for reliability is essential for a strong business.  Think of all the repeat sales that wouldn't happen otherwise.  Anywho, though annoying, I will see this discussion through:

It's quite telling when the reply is in response to a dispute and all it did was shoot the messenger rather than address the content.

Dealers don't make squat from the maintenance expenses you listed, period.

Dealers do make money from repair/replace work, but that type of revenue is not what a well-designed PHEV will provide.

Let it go already.

3-04-2025

PHEV, mistake.  There was a lot of back & forth.  I only saved the highlights here, since much of it was repetition.  I would post something and very shortly afterward, there would be a reply.  This time, nothing.  I waiting for almost 18 hours before breaking the silence with:  Silence after so long would seem to indicate recognition of the mistake.  Assumption was that "goldmine" comes from money made by owners having to pay for routine maintenance expenses.  I pointed out those tasks generate very little in return.  Those same tasks can be done elsewhere, at a local shop rather than a dealer.  What dealer's really make money from is repair/replace expenses.  A well-designed PHEV won't need that.  Use of the gas-engine is minimal & light, which equates to very little post-purchase revenue for the dealer.

3-03-2025

PHEV, goldmine.  He just ignores what I post and repeats the same sentiment: "Everything in what I wrote still applies though.  Higher maintenance costs because you are maintaining effectively two systems each with its own maintenance and associated cost.  A goldmine for the manufacturer which is providing the on-going service though."  That myth of two systems has always been a dead giveaway, blatant evidence of not understanding what makes a good hybrid different.  Remember 25 years ago, when very few knew there were different types of hybrids.  I remember countless "not the same" arguments.  Now, we are seeing similar cluelessness about BEV, lumping them all into a single category.  Ugh.  To that nonsense, I asked:  Where is this supposed goldmine?  Getting an oil change when you bring in the vehicle for a tire rotation is not a money maker.  Changing an air or fuel filter is a simple job too.  Transmission fluid doesn't even need to be changed until 120,000 miles.

3-03-2025 PHEV, outdated.  I got tired of the back & forth, so I posted this without waiting for a reply from the design post:

That's why comes down to know your audience.  Ordinary consumers simply don't care about lower maintenance cost.

That comes about for two reasons.  First is progress from reliability.  Modern ICE are dramatically better than they were back when they were growing up decades ago.  Second is the uncontrollable nature of that expense.  Many simply learned to suck it up, dealing with each update & repair as it was needed.  Both equate to an "out of sight, out of mind" dilemma for EV supporters.

Becoming aware of that is how the conversation shifted to operational cost instead, a change some still pushing the old sales-pitch haven't got the message about yet.  Haven't you noticed how many posts now focus on expenses related to charging at home?  Lots of people are now asking about impact to their monthly electricity bill and what it takes to get level-2 installed.

In short, your argument is quite outdated now.  People are focused on plugging in now, seeing inclusion of an ICE as beneficial to offset current infrastructure shortcomings.

3-03-2025

PHEV, design.  It's intriguing to watch someone risk winning the war by giving it their all to win a battle.  He remained obsessed with the point that ICE engines require more maintenance and completely ignored repeated references to audience.  So, I followed with:  That would be solid confirmation of not recognizing the differences between an ICE vehicle and a well designed PHEV.  Again...  No gears.  No starter.  No serpentine.  No steering fluid.  The gas-engine is babied from low RPM starts delayed until oil-pressure is established.  The gas-engine is never stressed due to the electric-motor being primary propulsion source.  The gas-engine is timed by a chain instead of a belt.  The gas-engine is physically smaller too.

3-03-2025

PHEV, audience.  Sure enough, he completely ignored what I posted: "Again, you clearly haven't read what I wrote."  I know him at this point.  He's made up his mind based upon incorrect assumptions.  Note how some Volt supporters still to this day don't understand how Volt is actually designed or operates.  That meant anything I posted about the plug-in Prius fell on deaf ears.  In their mind, Volt was vastly superior.  It's how the "know your audience" mantra came about.  They were posting to win online arguments, not to actually change the status quo.  To them, the choice was clear.  When it comes to this situation, I try to keep my posts brief and to remind them of who they are trying to convey the message to:  Try again.  KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE.  Attempting to convince people who have already trivialized maintenance that a vehicle needing even less is a really big deal is futile. 

3-03-2025

PHEV, worst.  There are some who argue academics.  They post this: "worst of both worlds" and move on.  They figure nothing else needs to be said.  So upon today's occurrence, I asked who he was trying to convince with such a weak argument.  He obviously wasn't reading all my posts.  This was the reply: "I could ask you the same thing.  You haven't refuted anything I wrote; if you care to then you're welcome to write it."  He didn't consider any of that a refute.  Ugh.  He clearly doesn't know the audience.  Next step was to share some background:  That's because I have already, hundreds of times over the past 13 years of PHEV ownership.  I started with a 2012 PHEV, upgraded to two 2017 PHEVs, then replaced one with a BEV.  In that time, anyone who has brought up "worst" failed to address audience. I know that those who purchase a PHEV and take advantage of the EV miles by plugging in as much as possible see the minimal upkeep as very good tradeoff.  I also know that most of those arguing are not aware of the reduced need, since a well designed PHEV eliminates some parts found in an ICE.

3-02-2025 PHEV, different.  It is nice to see a recognition of design beyond "two propulsion system" arguments.  This started that portion of the discussion: "PHEVs feel more and more like an overcomplicated marketing ploy to sell to people still too nervous about relying solely on a battery.  I also believe you can't use the same assembly lines you use to make ICEVs or BEVs to make PHEVs.  They are simply too different."  Remember how it all started?  GM wanted to deliver a system capable of being swapped.  Two-Mode was designed to fit within an existing transmission housing.  That approach created a convoluted mess.  This is why the gen-2 of that, Volt, was claimed to be a fresh start instead.  Its legacy was a problem.  Ultimately, enthusiasts couldn't escape that reality... which was especially hurtful when they faced reality that Toyota's design really was different, it was not as they had portrayed it.  All this years later, I still have to share that same information:

That's correct.  This is why Toyota is abandoning ICE.

With their hybrids, design is simplified.  No more shifting gears.  No more serpentine belt.  No more starter.  Not even power-steering fluid.  Choices like that is what made their hybrids more profitable than ICE, hence the phaseout we're seeing.  Camry is now 100% hybrid and the same expected for the upcoming RAV4.

To go from hybrid to PHEV, a clutch is added along with more battery and a plug.  The reason why there aren't more yet is focus has been on initial rollout (introducing CH-R, Crown and Alphard) while waiting for battery production to catch up.

BEV is a beast of its own.  Sales of loss-leaders has caused turmoil for legacy automakers.  Absence of profit... some of which is caused by the need for an independent production-line... remains a very real problem.  Government backing makes BYD's growth to continue.  Political struggle is a very real problem for Tesla though.  There's obvious infrastructure challenges still too.

This is why we are about to see a PHEV shakeout, their next phase.  Designs capable of competing will thrive and those incapable disappear.  Shortcomings, like lack of a heat-pump and inefficient operation... both of which equate to shorter range... will become apparent to consumers.

3-01-2025

PHEV, shift.  Some see it coming, a means of getting the unwilling to consider a plug-in.  BEV purists despise the idea.  They don't see any type of compromise as acceptable.  That's why some keep asking the same question over and over again.  Others pretend the information you provided never happened.  This topic  is becoming more difficult to play those trolling games with.  In fact, I can see this discussion getting ugly this time.  Our president's hate for EVs is blatant.  Lies during the campaign have already been broken.  Some see the upcoming problems.  Their plans shattered.  What now?  That should be obvious.  Claims of PHEV owner not plugging in could be advantageous.  That could serve to tamper down any resistance.  Subtle is the key.  I shared these sentiments in that regard:  It's a paradigm shift.  Never saving enough on fuel costs will likely to become less important as interest for plugging in rises.  It's very easy to see how anything with a plug will hold its value more than a vehicle without.  That simple fact alone makes it competitive in a market where some gas stations can no longer survive because their primary source of income... purchases inside their store... drop as fewer stop for gas and new compelling recharge locations emerge.  In other words, having to fill a tank becomes less convenient and more expensive as the plug-in market matures.

3-01-2025 PHEV, easy.  They are gaining attention.  This was the stir from this morning: "PHEVs are not an easy answer in the sense that they are easy to build.  They are easy in the sense that they are necessary during the transition to zero emission vehicles... when the world's battery supply is limited, while batteries are heavy and expensive."  It was a sensible contribution to the discussion.  Seeing the troll was hard at work spreading FUD there, I added:

They are "easy" for an automaker who worked hard for over 2 decades to deliver a hybrid more profitable that an ICE with the ability to support a plug already part of the design.

We see that from Toyota. To go from regular hybrid to plug-in hybrid, they add a clutch.  It disconnects the gas-engine, allowing the already connected second electric-motor to switch from being a generator to provide additional power to the wheels.

This is why their $13.9 Billion investment for that new battery production plant in North Carolina is so vital.  Being able to supply cells in the US market for the US market changes the cost formula significantly.

The other part of the equation has been to phase out ICE, while rolling out hybrids as their new base and introducing PHEV at the same time.  So far, they have PHEV models of Prius, RAV4, Crown, CH-R and Alphard.  Also, note that Prius in Europe is now available only as a PHEV.

2-28-2025

PHEV, premise.  I especially liked seeing this: "The premise of PHEVs and EREVs erodes when battery weight and costs reduce sufficiently.  Before then we may see the ICE components shrink in size and duty cycle."  That was the kind of invitation to provide exposition I patiently wait for, then pounce on:

The premise is that PHEV bridges consumers to BEV.

They start with nothing but a standard household 120-volt outlet.  Having overnight to recharge you'll get roughly 14 kWh.  (That's 10 hours @ 120 volts * 12 amps.)  From a standard efficiency of 3 mi/kWh, you get 42 miles... exactly the EV range Toyota PHEV has targeted.

The desire for faster charging naturally encourages the upgrade to level-2, without any pressure . It's a no range-anxiety vehicle with an intimidation-free path to the next purchase not having a gas-engine.

With regard to shrinking components & duty, that has already happened in Prius.  Its engine has tiny pistons, with light-weight rods & camshaft, running an Atkinson-Miller pumping cycle. 

2-28-2025

PHEV, popularity.  It's growing.  ZEV purists don't know what to do.  Here's an attempt to raise doubt and mislead: "While the facts are still coming in, hybrids and PHEVs will lose the durability race.  Not to mention they suck to drive compared to a good BEV, engine on/off and blended brakes are just not smooth like a BEV can be."  That's utter nonsense.  But of course, I try to stir replies rather than crush the desperate acts of those unwilling to consider the bigger picture.  This time, I posted:  Lack of search will tend to make people draw that conclusion.  Those who experience a well designed PHEV firsthand have a totally different opinion. Prius Prime delivers a BEV experience.  You can commute to work & home entirely without the gas-engine ever starting, complete with a heat-pump foe better efficiency.  I drove mine for many years that way before getting a BEV.

2-26-2025 It's Getting Ugly.  Seeing things take us to here was not what many had ever expected: "All this damage to the EV market place might not have been possible without the help of Trump's Nazi buddy..."  Having witnessed some things in the past, I'm not surprised.  That attitude of being vastly superior never went away.  It spread, then refocused elsewhere.  Support for Tesla has always been odd.  Without a dealer network to provide service on the vehicles quickly, you were stuck waiting.  Even with so few vehicles offered, that took weeks sometimes.  It is why talk of profound growth never made any sense.  Going from 1.5 Million vehicles per year to 20 Million would require dramatic improvements from production to repair.  Ordinary consumers are far less forgiving than any enthusiast too.  Seeing Elon shift attention to politics and his other businesses is making that situation far more difficult to support.  Many Tesla owners don't want to be associated to the increasing rhetoric.  To say it's getting ugly would be an understatement.  Here's what I did say:  Tesla has always primarily been an energy solution provider, not an automaker as most assume.  That's why pushing SuperChargers got so much attention and was such a good business, especially with the leasing approach.  This is why Model 3 & Y were allowed to get so old and nothing in the difficult entry-model market was ever rolled out.  It was far easier to cater to enthusiasts instead... hence Cybertruck... rather than try to compete with razor-thin profit-margin vehicles.  Seeing legacy automakers struggle with loss-leader sales enabled delay and created the opportunity to exploit the election.  At some point though, tension between Elon and investors will reach an impasse.

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