Personal Log  #1317

April 26, 2025  -  May 5, 2025

Last Updated:  Weds. 6/25/2025

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5-05-2025

Getting Serious, conquest.  The latest in the stream of antagonist posts came with an interesting twist.  I referred to some of the BEV currently available as special offerings.  That should be obvious.  Not everyone needs so much range or power.  Heck, there isn't a high priority on so many features either.  The topic of getting serious means actions in that regard.  Selling basic transport is not what this market is ready for.  In fact, the industry as a whole is struggling with that reality.  An entry-level offering will have a difficult time competing directly with other choices on the showroom floor.  Enthusiasts are well aware of that... which is why they get so hostile when I bring up audience.  That don't what to face certain facts yet.  So, they twist what you post instead.  It's a rather desperate effort to evade.  Who do they think they are fooling?  Conquest sales were great, but that audience was early-adopters seeking opportunity.  They had no loyalty to any particular brand, nor did they have any intention of long-term retention.  They would simply move on to the next opportunity.  But now that their indulgence time is coming to an end, they can't handle it.  15 years of early-adopters dominating the market makes the change happening now a break to the status quo they had worked so hard to establish & retain.  It's over.  We're moving on.  This denial of that made me smile:  btw, it's quite telling how you misunderstood what "special" referred to.  Most enthusiasts have a very difficult time recognizing when the conquest stage is wrapping up.

5-05-2025

Getting Serious, showroom.  It's intriguing to watch the final efforts of a desperate enthusiast, an early-adopter unwilling to let go of that stage.  At some point, I'll just ignore his trolling.  But for now, before the upcoming reveals from Toyota, it's a learning opportunity.  bZ4X will get a mid-cycle update, giving it improvements many feeding the "behind" narrative will have problems with.  They can't use Toyota as a scapegoat when online lurkers see progress like that.  Heck, I'll be getting a NACS adapter later this year.  Greater access to DC fast-charging makes the vehicle even more practical.  Their material for rhetoric is fading.  Anywho, none of that really matters to the consumer Toyota is targeted.  I posted a reminder of that to the desperate enthusiast:  Ordinary consumers won't ever see your posts of outdated information.  Those shopping on the showroom floor will see the market from a very different perspective.  Know your audience.

5-05-2025 Tesla Death Spiral.  When a publication which had long ago showed heavy bias toward Tesla changes, others take notice.  Remember rhetoric of the past?  You'd get mocked for not buying a Tesla, treated with a "should have known better" attitude.  It was quite insulting, especially when it came from a troll on a group not for Tesla.  Anywho, speaking out openly about Tesla no longer gets countered.  that "vastly superior" chorus has grown silent.  It made posting this rather fulfilling:

Innovator's Dilemma was quite predictable.  Tesla scored amazing popularity by breaking new ground and stirring lots of interest with a compelling offering.  But rather than finding an effective means of diversifying, necessary for growth, it got stuck at that innovation stage.  Tesla lost its way as a result, uncertain of what to do next.

The obvious choice was to retarget the brand, shifting from an enthusiast audience to mainstream consumers.  That would have meant scaling back traits... speed, power, range and no longer depending upon self-driving potential.  It would be a change to compete directly against cheap ICE offerings.

Tesla never wanted to become a Corolla/Camry type automaker though, hence the dilemma.  There was no good next step... which is why so many missteps have happened recently.   Terrible decisions & actions have irreparably damaged the brand as a result.

5-04-2025 Getting Serious, taking the bait.  I didn't.  I stayed on topic, as the title stated: "Japan Is Finally Getting Serious About EVs".  He kept trying to stir up old arguments.  Instead, I posted:

Notice how several of the comments posted for this article absolutely refuse to acknowledge the point of the article?  That's a good sign.  It's confirmation of change.  Toyota will disrupt.  Their plans "to launch as many as 15 EVs by 2027 across the world" in addition to upgrading existing offerings equates to ending the "EV market" niche enthusiasts relished in for years.

We've seen that same behavior pattern in the past.  We a new technology becomes common, the dilution of it feels like a loss to those who had worked so hard to make it standout as special.  Being seen as ubiquitous ruins appeal, in their mind.  It short, they fight to retain their final moments before offerings are seen as mainstream.

Toyota doesn't cater to enthusiasts.  That's why narratives are created to portray them as counter to efforts to move forward.  In reality, it's just staying focused on their own customers... those who simply aren't interested in paying a premium for specs they don't actually need.

To see this in action, watch what happens with the mid-cycle update for bZ4X.

5-04-2025

Getting Serious, within 5 minutes.  I waited until the next day to reply, 19 hours to be precise.  He had already posted a reply within 5 minutes of my comment being available.  I find it fascinating how predictable and how desperate he has become.  This my exploration about how the most close-minded perceived the market prior to Toyota's upcoming reveals.  We know the new RAV4 is on the way.  I suspect something with regard to the new 3-row BEV is too.  Knowing that makes this on-going commentary all the more rewarding:  Same mistakes... like cherry-picking outdated data with the hope it will be accepted as a representation of what an owner should routinely expect.  Of course, the portrayal of "behind" is the biggest mistake.  It shows a disconnect with the audience. Toyota's history shows understanding "who" is absolutely vital for success... a major failure for antagonists.

5-04-2025

Getting Serious, denial.  This is what denial looks like: "So nothing new for sale.  No official numbers.  Polishing a turd.  Not competitive.  Yawwwwwwn."  He'll deny a upgrade is coming, then deny the improvements when it becomes available.  I find such an easy to recognize pattern quite assuring.  This was my response to that nonsense:  You're following Toyota's history, repeating the same mistakes.  Back then, it was obsessing with Prius.  No matter how many times the technology itself was brought up, attempting to draw attention to their other hybrids, it didn't matter.  Prius was a terrible; therefore, Toyota was doomed.  All these years later, not only did was that technology spread successful, it became the new standard.  Choosing to ignore planned offerings, CH-R+ and the 3-row BEV, is a blatant disregard for the bigger picture... repeating that same mistake.   And of course, Prius not only continued to get upgrades, it became a highly regarded industry leader.

5-03-2025 Getting Serious, facts.  It is extraordinary to read a post from someone who thinks they're be serious, but never actually posts anything  constructive.  It's been nothing but vague opinions and personal insults: "Dodging facts and reality as usual.  Desperate is defending a laughably bad EV and a company making such a mediocre vehicle."  Look familiar.  I've dealt with rhetoric like that for years.  This was my reply:

Facts for the bZ4X mid-cycle update (2026 model):

 · battery-cell count from 96 to 104 = range increase
 · Silicon Carbide (SiC) semiconductor = range increase 
 · next-gen eAxle (traction motor) = power increase
 · pre-conditioning (navigation & manual) = faster DC charging 
 · charge-curve improved = faster DC charging

It's quite obvious at this point the narrative to portray Toyota as incompetent and hopelessly behind is falling apart.  Seeing Toyota deliver an EV with 337 hp, 150 kW charging, around 285 miles of range with 4 mi/kWh efficiency is clearly freaking out enthusiasts who used them as a distraction from their own challenges.

5-03-2025

Getting Serious, attacks.  There were several throughout yesterday.  It was the same old nonsense... vague and without substance.  The whole point of the article was ignored.  The troll attacks were quite desperate.  I finally fired back at this: "Today, toyota's website: bz4x awd range: 222, $41k msrp, 102 mpge.  Still terrible!  Still hard to look at."  It was such a blatant attempt to pretend there was no mid-cycle update coming or even a mention of improvement.  This was from the same guy who's been using a cherry-picked road test to mislead about expectations.  He was obviously in a state of denial, getting confirmation of change.  This was his follow up: "Weak driving range and recharging.  Strange interior layout.  Competitors are much better.  Dud.  Polish a turd and it's still a turd."  Sound familiar?  No matter what happens, there's always an effort to evade the topic of audience.  Who is going to care about his assessment?  It certainly won't be showroom shoppers.  Think about they'll see late this year.  Ugh.  I replied to that with:  Pretending there wasn't a mid-cycle update mentioned (2026 model) and instead posting specs for the outgoing (2025 model) is a sign of being truly desperate to hold on to an old narrative.

5-03-2025

Doom & Gloom.  We're going to see progress regardless of what this administration does.  Finding out that the promise of "reduced energy cost" not actually meaning anything beyond gas is yet another setback.  People had assuming out con-artist president was concerned about electricity, natural gas, and heating oil expenses for us.  Nope.  All he cares about is keeping legacy ICE sales alive.  If it guzzles gas, that's what he'll support.  That's an uphill battle for those who care about clean air & sustainability.  Fortunately, I live in a pocket of fly-over country that's making a difference.  We have enough established already to keep the momentum going.  There's been enough smog-alerts in the past and solar installs of recent to prove a worthy cause.  Seeing so many plug-in vehicles on the road during the dead of winter here seals the deal.  It's confirmation of the technology.  That's makes it easy to post stuff like this whenever a doom & gloom article is published:  Living in Minnesota and having both a BEV & PHEV in our household, an impeding nightmare doesn't seem likely.  We already see many plug-ins on the road during the dead of winter, which sends a powerful message of endorsement.  The state just reinforced NEVI funding too, covering whatever federal support that falls through to make round 2 installs still happen.  Those new DC fast-charger locations will cover the third major highway corridor in our state.  That's in addition to the local power co-ops filling in rural gaps and big investors like Ionna and GM/Pilot.  That growth of public support will help keep the momentum going.  After all, we were able to become the first CARB state in the Midwest from a willingness to fight against the status quo.

5-02-2025

Getting Serious, sleepwalking.  An article with this title is really good troll bait: "Japan Is Finally Getting Serious About EVs".  I took an offensive position and started posting using this quote from the article: "The company [Toyota] has been sleepwalking through the EV era, with half-hearted efforts like the bZ4X."  And this is what I had to say:  That's just media spin.  Reality is, Toyota has been following their same success formula they used for hybrids.  What we've seen from bZ4X closely resembles the history for Prius.  Enthusiasts can't stand that approach. but it works fine for mainstream consumers that follow.  Notice how reliable the EV propulsion system has been right from the start.  That was the priority.   Focus shifted after getting established.  Their mid-cycle update for 2026 models addresses the rest, delivering increased range, increased efficiency and faster DC charging with preconditioning.

5-01-2025

Rechargery!  The first of them here has moved beyond the planning stage.  An official location has been revealed.  Ionna (the EV charging consortium backed by eight major automakers - including General Motors, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Stellantis, Honda, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota) will be building a "Rechargery" in White Bear Lake.  That's very close to 2 good friends and my sister.  I drive by that location routinely once a month too.  Details about this locations are simple... 4 NACS and 6 CCS.  Looking at the bigger picture for the United States, 200 sites have been contracted covering 14 states, 12 are live, and 15 are under construction.  One of the locations is a "market live" design.  That's a stand-alone facility without a host.  30,000 charging bays are planned by the end of 2030.  This is all funded by businesses, no government.  So even with the anti-EV efforts taking place in the White House now, progress is still being made.  From my perspective, I'm intrigued by the Toyota note on their website stating: "Discounts coming soon."

4-29-2025

SAIC Ownership.  It shouldn't be any surprise that the bailout of GM in China was not well publicized.  Heck, the part that happened here was a disaster.  Funds provided by the United State's government never got paid back.  Money was lost.  So naturally, supporters kept extremely quiet about it.  That's why when comments like this come up, I just have to wonder how clueless everyone else is.  Supposedly, online participants are clearly informed.  Clearly, that assumption is incorrect: "If GM is smart they would keep the EV production lines here on schedule but work a series hybrid option into the mix as a range extended trim for these vehicles, rather than try to redevelop from scratch the parallel hybrid tech they abandoned years ago and set themselves back even further in the event that in 4 years EVs become the in thing again."  That develop-from-scratch approach was very obvious when first announced.  GM had no choice, so the decision simply made sense.  That market ended up booming after all.  Listening to hype about BEV progress has proven consequential.  So little with regard to appealing to the masses took place over the first decade, there was no possible way the next few would miraculously go from niche to mass-acceptance.  Enthusiasts were still arguing semantics and infrastructure painfully lacking should have made that undeniable.  Like with GM efforts in the past, it was all about the hype... blind faith building up hope to a totally unrealistic expectation.  Needless to say, I have said that all before.  So, no need to this time.  Just a brief awareness post was enough:  GM didn't abandon that tech.  They never actually had it.  Rights belonged to SAIC, which had a strangle hold on any possibility of expansion.  GM's only option was to develop something on its own.  Despite the huge setback, that need is becoming quite clear.

4-26-2025 Semiconductor Upgrade.  I enjoyed looking back, sharing my thoughts as well as the introduction from the article that confirmed the semiconductor upgrade:

1999 is when my quest to reduce emissions & consumption began.  Toyota came up as forward thinking, a standout for holding true to goals and not getting distracted by rhetoric.  What really made that point was "stealth" mode in the original Prius.  My first test drive was back in August 2000, a month before delivery of my 2001 model finally happened.  The ability to drive in EV up to 42 mph (max draw of 10 kW) went unnoticed by many, hence calling it "stealth".  The ironically quiet nature of that propulsion made the coined reference stick.

Anywho, Toyota has been doing stuff like that ever since.  Subtle rollout of their 2-stage PSD really impressed.  It was first delivered in Camry hybrid, where most never noticed.  So when that design improvement came to Prius, it was already thoroughly real-world tested.  Similar technology shaking out happened with their heat-pump too, rolled out with Prius Prime well ahead of RAV4 Prime and bZ4X.

As you could have guessed, their newest industry surprise is about to be rolled out with the mid-cycle update for bZ4X & Solterra... a next-gen eAxle.  It's already available with one in a variant of the Lexus RZ.  Notice how 300e is notably more efficient than 450e.  That isn't from just tweaks to vehicle configuration.

Most people never understood the significance, even when I pointed out that difference.  Lexus simply doesn't get much attention. But now that the same is coming for us, attention should change.  Check out this food for thought:

DENSO Develops Its First Inverter Using SiC Power Semiconductors

– Highly efficient Silicon carbide chips significantly reduce power loss in electric vehicles –

KARIYA, Japan (Mar. 31, 2023) – DENSO CORPORATION, a leading mobility supplier, announced it has developed its first-ever inverter with silicon carbide (SiC) semiconductors.  This inverter, which is incorporated in the eAxle, an electric driving module developed by BluE Nexus Corporation, will be used in the new Lexus RZ, the automaker’s first dedicated battery electric vehicle (BEV) model and released March 30.

SiC power semiconductors consist of silicon and carbon that significantly reduce power loss compared to silicon (Si) power semiconductors.  A cruising test conducted under specific conditions by BEV using SiC semiconductor inverters demonstrated inverters with SiC power semiconductor reduce power loss less than half of ones with Si semiconductor.  As a result, the energy efficiency of BEVs is improved and cruising range is extended.

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