Remember, we aren't even out of the early-adopter stage yet.  That means mainstream acceptance hasn't started yet.  That stage is defined by competing directly on the showroom floor, traditional against plug-in, without any subsidies.  Watch what happens with Prius Prime.  That starting MSRP of $27,600 is the dream "nicely under $30,000" goal GM was never able to deliver.

Unfortunately, just like all the other successes of the past, a great deal of patience is needed in the meantime.

That may or may not be the greener grass you are looking for, but it is certainly what legacy automakers need to move forward.

Today's Future.  It has been interesting to read some impressions of what the future is expected to bring.  I hear comments that have no basis upon any market effort.  People just see a need and expect it to somehow be fulfilled.  Who will do that, when it will get done, and how it gets paid for doesn't get addressed.  They just figure it will somehow be dealt with.  That type of "magic" is pretty common.  It's the basic non-enthusiast perspective.  Stuff just happens.  That's why there's such a fascination with Prius.  It simply works.  The future is "today" regardless of when you start paying attention.  This is something mysterious & questionable by early-adopters.  Some now, especially as Tesla phaseout is well underway, just expect an effortless growth to take place.  Catch is, it's not like Prius Prime.  The discovery process isn't as simple as coming across one while wandering around at the dealer.  Pricing keeps in the "someday" category too.  In other words, stuff like this coming up randomly in discussions is how you know a new chapter has begun.  Rhetoric of the past is fading away... hence, the future arriving today... for some.

Watching Inventory.  I have been watching the ups & downs of inventory for the 2020 Prius Prime.  It took less than 2 weeks for another 500 to become available as ready-to-purchase stock.  That's doesn't account for those sold during that same time period.  So, I'm actually witnessing the number rise, then fall.  The point is to see an overall growth.  That's how I know the market reach is taking place.  Sales are very important, but so is being able to reach new customers.  That requires supply to be on dealer listings.  The phone-app shows that data.  It's quite handy.  I can already see August will be a good month for existing markets.  New markets (like the 500-mile radius from me, here in Minnesota) hasn't seen any growth at all.  We have a dozen vehicles listed, all special orders.  Not being part of the initial rollout regions was a test of patience.  Getting 2020 models as the first ready-to-purchase stock is fantastic.  Customers (as well as sales staff) will only ever know this newest offering.  Not having any type of legacy to deal with has benefits.  That means a bit more waiting.  I suspect new region rollout won't begin until close to the end of the year.  Oh well.  There should be a few announcements/reveals in the meantime.  That gives Toyota ample opportunity to see the stage while we wait too.  Stuff like training at the dealers is quite helpful.  Hopefully, that's what some of those special-order deliveries are for.  It takes a bit of real-world exposure before you get enough experience to feel comfortable promoting something so new.  In fact, that's part of the reason why Toyota decided to rollout to individual market schedules, rather than to the entire country all at once.  Experts for training are limited.  So, while I wait, I watch inventory grow.

Constructive Questions.  Sometimes, you get lucky.  My assumption response resulted in: "Curious then what is your prediction for when they hit the phaseout and what models will they have in place in the US at that time?"  I appreciate that type of post.  It shows critical thinking.  Rather than attacking the messenger or attempting to draw attention elsewhere, it's a worthwhile question.  Yeah!  That's so much than the usual nonsense, especially when the rhetoric is so brainless.  To that, I gladly answered with:  I have no idea.  Toyota has a reputation for carefully monitoring markets and responding in its best long-term interest.  I have been watching inventory of 2020 Prime models grow in the established markets over the past 3 weeks.  The impression based on counts appears that sales are already off to a good start there.  It suggests the same will happen as new markets finally get decent delivery.  While that's happening here, Corolla PHV owners elsewhere will be providing data to gauge rollout potential in other markets.  I suspect we'll get a PHV model of RAV4 first.

Overcoming Assumptions.  Setting realistic expectations is a means of preventing assumptions.  Problem is, people continuously supply misleading information.  It never ends... which is why trolls thrive in certain venues.  It probably isn't intentional.  It just happens.  But then they become addicted to the resulting attention.  That's the problem I have now with a certain Prius owner who has decided the big forum is there for his entertainment, rather than being a source for exchanging detail about ownership and the market.  When it becomes that, you know there will be trouble... since overall value is lost.  Newbies don't find it helpful and stop participating.  Sadly, that's exactly what our current president is doing too.  Making people become disenchanted results in less pushback when he does whatever he wants.  Notice how many tweets we actually get daily now.  Ugh.  It's just like posting.  Quantity rather than quality is a red flag.  That's why when you encounter comments like this, it makes you wonder how much disinformation was spread to give such an impression: "I don't understand why Toyota doesn't add a plug to these models and thus gaining eligibility for government incentives."  There are only 200,000 credits available per automaker.  So, there is no gain.  The finite quantity cannot be changed.  For that matter, eligibility doesn't require more models.  The only option available is to seriously ramp up production just prior to reaching phaseout.  That's where the assumption part comes in, which I stated as:  How do you know Toyota isn't planning to do exactly that?  It certainly looks like they are setting the stage for high-volume availability to happen the same time as triggering phaseout... which would make it ideal, since that is when the tax-credits switch from quota to unlimited.  After all, that is what Tesla did with great results.  Just because GM blew it by not having anything in place doesn't mean Toyota will do the same thing.

History Disagreement.  It is intriguing to find someone disagreeing with you when they have nothing to offer in support of their claim.  I have this massive collection of blog entries, written back at the time of those events playing out.  That provides an incredibly valuable perspective, one of not knowing what comes next.  When you already know the outcome, any reflection upon that history is distorted & bias as a result of that uncertainty having been removed.  You must take into consideration material from that time, documenting what people felt & believed would occur.  That's why the "intent" discussion is somewhat pointless.  It teaches you how to make decisions about the future, but does not in any way alter the past.  Whatever happened, happened.  That's the way it is.  Wise or Stupid, it doesn't matter.  The outcome is not for debate.  In this case, the demand & reputation for traditional guzzlers remained untarnished.  Legacy sales continue as they did back then.  Ugh.  Annoyed, I posted:  You can disagree with intent, but that won't change it.  A decade ago when the tax-credit first became available, the market was different... hence the relevance of pointing out the bigger picture.  Again, that bigger picture is important.  The tax-credit is only for 200,000 vehicles.  Focus on the highly profitable with annual sales much higher wouldn't appeal to the true customers, the dealers.  True change (actual impact to the status quo) means focusing on the more difficult challenge.

Intent Reminder.  It was a decade ago when the hype of pre-release for Volt when expectations turned into rhetoric.  The reason why was simple... there was nothing to back the claims.  Statements claimed as fact were meritless.  There was no data.  There wasn't even specifications yet.  They had nothing.  I got attacked when pointing that out.  So, I tried to keep discussion focused on the business aspect.  How many Volt does GM intent to actually sell?  To whom?  When?  It was a push without a plan.  Knowing the tax-credit was limited, it should have been obvious some type of plan would be necessary... otherwise, opportunity would be wasted.  You want to build up demand to a sustainable level prior to expiration.  The reason why is simple.  After the 200,000 sales, phaseout is triggered.  That switches the tax-credit availability from quantity to time, allowing the automaker to flood the market.  It's an opportunity Tesla capitalized on and GM wasted... exactly as predicted.  All that "too little, too slowly" concern I got relentlessly attacked for has been confirmed as valid.  I am vindicated for having been sincere about sales.  I really was the looking out for the best interest of business & consumer.  Sadly, none of that history is remembered.  Looking back, you get a very different perception of what subsidy use should have been.  That's understandable, considering how much has happened with the plug-in market over the past decade.  However, not recognizing the "2020" perspective (what an interesting cliché twist) is a very real problem.  Technology changes.  Technology improves.  It takes time though and you must best use resources available for that period.  I provided all that history summarized into:  Intent of the tax-credit was to establish a technology, allowing each automaker to build up production & reputation by their own choosing at their own pace.  The catch was to complete that process prior to triggering phaseout.  Tesla did a wonderful job of that.  GM simply abandoned their entire effort to blend engine with motor.  Voltec was never spread to any mainstream offering, like Trax or Equinox, as was expected.  That was a colossal waste of opportunity.  Remember all that "range-anxiety" campaigning against EV choices?