GM has no next step.  Evidence of that comes from the Hummer focus.  Why aren't we hearing anything about a plug-in aimed at Equinox buyers?  Nothing at all for middle-market buyers is a dead giveaway of problems to come.  Remember the "Who is the market for Volt?" question getting asked repeatedly over the years?  It's more neglect, missed opportunity to deliver something appealing to their own showroom shoppers.  This is history repeating, yet again.  Perhaps that's the amazing part.  Could any automaker really be that stupid?

All that provides perspective for the stage which has just come to a end.  This new stage just starting requires significant growth at prices directly competitive (no subsidies) with traditional vehicles.  So, even lessons learned from the past only apply in limited fashion.  Appealing to showroom shoppers is a major challenge to overcome still.  Having proven technically viable isn't the only step toward mass acceptance.

Short Distance?  This was the commute posted on the video from yesterday: "15.8 miles in EV is a very short distance."  This is how I responded to that:  38 minutes of cabin heating and window clearing using only electricity is actually pretty good.  Keep in mind the outcome.  MPG was still well over 200 and the entire supply of electricity was taken advantage of.  That's the point.  In the summer, EV distance is well over the 25-mile rating.  In fact, seeing low 30's is quite common.  Also, this drive didn't start with a full charge; it was short 3% since charging had not completed yet.

Video:  Prius Prime - Snowy Commute Home.  Roads were getting bad.  All that snow meant a slow drive home.  That extra times reduces EV range, since electricity is also used for the heater.  Watch as the battery-capacity is used up and the engine joins in to provide a mix of power & heat.  Once the coolant is warmed, the engine shuts off and you resume EV driving.  It turned out to be a really good example of what Winter can do to alter driving circumstances.  I quite pleased to be able to share footage like this...  Prius Prime - Snowy Commute Home

Video:  Prius Prime - To An Evening Meeting.  Minnesota EV Owners' Group has meetings every 6 weeks or so.  This one in January just happened to be one an evening cold enough to be below the heat-pump threshold, which meant the opportunity to show how the engine joins in to provide heat.  Watch the overall efficiency climb as it cycles on & off.  You can see the coolant being heated for cabin warming, then circulated until it isn't able to provide any more warmth.  That entire time the engine is off, you get to enjoy EV driving.  When the engine starts back up, the hybrid system is run in the most efficient manner... which means if there is excess load (due to RPM remaining relatively constant for maximum MPG) some of power is directed to the generator to create electricity for charging the battery.  It's a system that seeks out opportunity.  Even if brief, it really adds up.  This video helps to demonstrate that capability...  Prius Prime - To An Evening Meeting

ZEV Credit Formula.  The formula for adopting ZEV standards is a simple on.  My multiple EV range by a reduction factor, then add a standard value.  For Bolt, the ZEV credit is 2.88.  The formula is [(0.01 X 238) + 0.50].  That 238 is the EV range in miles.  The 0.50 is a value added since it is a BEV.  With PHEV, that value is 0.30.   So for Prius Prime, the ZEV credit is 0.55.  The formula is [(0.01 x 25) + 0.30].  For Volt, you get 0.83 using [(0.01 X 53) + 0.30].  In other words, there's flexibility with what is being sold.  Dealers could favor a vehicle with a shorter range; yet, they would still achieve the required ZEV credits.  That's why when an antagonist claims "compliance" vehicle, they really don't know what that means.  It's intended to be an insult.  But if enough are sold, what difference does it make?  Heck, there are some situations where you are actually better off with a lot of PHEV instead.  Long EV range only matters if you actually use it.  The upcoming RAV4 Prime will deliver 39 miles of EV range.  [(0.01 X 39) + 0.30]  Each one sold will earn 0.69 credits.  Think about how much potential Toyota has with such a vehicle.  It could be extremely popular.

Adopting ZEV Standards.  It has been interesting to watch my state go through the process.  They are on an accelerated calendar too, hoping to adopt the standards within just 15 months.  Minnesota will commitment to CARB-established rules, just like the 12 or so other states that already have.  There will be a phase-in period, of course.  It gives the automakers & dealers an opportunity to adjust to meet the expectations.  For consumers, it means a easier time actually getting a green vehicle.  Just like with what originated from California, the credit formula will apply.  So, there should be a variety of choices.  For many automakers, there's not much to choose from yet.  But you have to start somewhere.

Neglect.  How many times did I foretell this outcome: "Voltec died of neglect.  If they'd put it in other platforms they'd have cleaned up."  Even with the less efficient and more expensive system than Toyota, they still had an audience.  It was missed opportunity.  It's amazing how many years of blogs entries I have pushing for the spread of that technology.  The enthusiasts kept fighting against that though.  GM wasn't taking the next step.  That situation was so ironic too.  They'd complain that Toyota was resting on it laurels, calling then laggards, while that was exactly the situation playing out with GM.  Even more ironic is the fact that Toyota really wasn't.  RAV4 Prime is overwhelming proof of that.  Makes you wonder what will happen now.  GM has been painfully quiet.  I just said this about the situation:  That is exactly what enthusiasts were warned about.  GM kept missing opportunity after opportunity.  They became enablers, showering GM with engineering praise rather than pushing for spread of the technology.

Expectations.  Enthusiasts tend to lose touch with ordinary consumers, without being aware of it.  So, from time to time, you have to remind them:  Know your audience.  It's not a matter of being a "who will buy" issue.  The problem is finding a way to appeal to the "who will sell".  Lexus dealers are in an entirely different category too, having shoppers looking for something not Tesla like.  True, that will change with the next-gen battery, but it most definitely isn't the case now.  So, they are appealing to their base by establishing plug-in offerings with familiar design in low volume.  It's no different than what happened 20 years ago with Prius.  Remember the sedan model?  We know the dedicated platform EV designs from Toyota are coming in a few years.  By then, Lexus dealers will be more familiar with the technology and have a better understanding how to compete in the newly emerging market.  Don't forget, the audience here is made up of supporters who are well informed and have much higher expectations than showroom shoppers.

There's the very real problem of battery production/supply too.  A pack with a 17.8 kWh capacity (the rumored size of RAV4 Prime) requires far fewer cells than that of a long-range (300'ish miles) pack.  In fact, that's enough for 4 plug-in hybrids.  That makes the PHEV a much more effective means of phasing out traditional vehicles than EV quickly, representing a major reduction in oil much sooner.

There's also misconceptions... which sadly, are spread by salespeople.  Think about the wide variety of configurations in the market.  Unless a person really makes an effort to learn about the technology, its quite easy to misunderstand how it operates.

Attack!  There are a few who just plain cannot stand their idea being challenged.  Their word is what dominates the venue.  So, when something is posted contrary to the narrative, watch out... especially if you do it repeatedly.  I have, which meant getting personally attacked today.  The most lame way to do that is claiming the person must be getting paid, with the hope that will draw attention away from the content itself.  I take that as an invitation to make sure the message being conveyed about the topic gets focused on even more.  In this case, that came with a terse insult.  Sometimes, you just shouldn't let the local enabler get away with stuff like that:  It has been interesting to watch you go after Toyota because you don't like their approach to BEV delivery.  Having to co-exist with fuel-cell technology and building from the bottom-up is too much to accept.  Now, you are attempting to spin a lie about me to cover up how poorly that has been going.  Well, too bad.  It's not about you anyway.  Toyota has two EV models in the works for this year and a new PHEV that's looking to be a very strong seller, all nicely targeted at their respective market.  That will set the stage nicely for the eTNGA platform to expand to offer more variety and very high-volume.  Again, too bad if you don't like their approach to plug-ins.  It's all about getting their customers (dealers purchasing inventory to sell) wanting to carry those choices.

Choice.  This sentiment is becoming more common: "Why GM didn't put a plug on the current design of Equinox is still a mystery to me."  It's a feeling of dismay that will likely grow in a rather profound way as this year plays out.  I piled on by adding some historical perspective:  The predecessor to Volt was Two-Mode, which already had a plug-in upgrade in the works on a SUV platform.  Rollout was expected back in 2009 as a Saturn Vue.  All lot of effort has been expended to conceal that past, to pretend none of the effort to electrify larger vehicles ever took place.  Instead, GM decided to rollout a diesel model of Equinox post dieselgate.  Two problems brought this about.  One was Innovator's Dilemma.  Success of gen-1 Volt praised by enthusiasts enabled GM to make gen-2 Volt even more of a niche, rather than making it into something for mainstream consumers.  Two was the Osborne Effect.  Any type of reveal like Toyota just did with RAV4 Prime could cause a great deal of harm to their profit from their traditional Equinox.  Since Toyota has a hybrid model of RAV4, which is both selling very well and produced domestically, they don't face the same problem.  In short, GM got itself into this mess by choice.  Seeing the next step will be a reboot of Hummer is just digging even deeper into the same hole.  Ugh.